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Championship

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025
Power Paths 24 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 27.6%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

Now Club Title Direct drop Expected finish
  1. #1
    Middlesbrough Elo 1,584.7
    Title 36.6%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 2.9
  2. #2
    Swansea City Elo 1,540.4
    Title 8.9%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 5.9
  3. #3
    West Ham United Elo 1,555.9
    Title 13.2%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 5.1
  4. #4
    Wolverhampton Wanderers Elo 1,521.7
    Title 3.1%
    Direct drop 0.3%
    Exp. finish 7.9
  5. #5
    West Bromwich Albion Elo 1,507.4
    Title 2.1%
    Direct drop 0.5%
    Exp. finish 9.2
  6. #6
    Southampton Elo 1,611.4
    Title 26.4%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 3.6
  7. #7
    Birmingham City Elo 1,532.3
    Title 4.2%
    Direct drop 0.3%
    Exp. finish 7.5
  8. #8
    Queens Park Rangers Elo 1,504.4
    Title 1.5%
    Direct drop 0.9%
    Exp. finish 9.6
  9. #9
    Stoke City Elo 1,476.5
    Title 0.7%
    Direct drop 1.7%
    Exp. finish 11.7
  10. #10
    Sheffield United Elo 1,507.5
    Title 0.6%
    Direct drop 1.4%
    Exp. finish 11.1
  11. #11
    Blackburn Rovers Elo 1,492.7
    Title 0.5%
    Direct drop 2.0%
    Exp. finish 11.7
  12. #12
    Portsmouth Elo 1,498.3
    Title 0.8%
    Direct drop 1.7%
    Exp. finish 11.5
  13. #13
    Millwall Elo 1,524.1
    Title 0.6%
    Direct drop 1.6%
    Exp. finish 11.3
  14. #14
    Bristol City Elo 1,474.6
    Title 0.1%
    Direct drop 8.5%
    Exp. finish 15.4
  15. #15
    Lincoln City Elo 1,488.8
    Title 0.2%
    Direct drop 5.5%
    Exp. finish 13.9
  16. #16
    Cardiff City Elo 1,464.6
    Title 0.1%
    Direct drop 12.5%
    Exp. finish 16.3
  17. #17
    Wrexham Elo 1,497.0
    Title 0.1%
    Direct drop 7.3%
    Exp. finish 15.1
  18. #18
    Bolton Wanderers Elo 1,481.5
    Title 0.1%
    Direct drop 8.2%
    Exp. finish 15.1
  19. #19
    Charlton Athletic Elo 1,435.8
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 28.8%
    Exp. finish 18.8
  20. #20
    Norwich City Elo 1,490.8
    Title 0.1%
    Direct drop 9.2%
    Exp. finish 15.3
  21. #21
    Watford Elo 1,416.9
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 53.7%
    Exp. finish 20.8
  22. #22
    Burnley Elo 1,520.8
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 12.6%
    Exp. finish 16.4
  23. #23
    Derby County Elo 1,447.4
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 54.9%
    Exp. finish 20.9
  24. #24
    Preston North End Elo 1,396.9
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 88.4%
    Exp. finish 23.1

Competition-specific qualification rules are not configured for this league, so those probabilities are hidden.

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Stoke City v Preston North End

H 49.0% · D 26.4% · A 24.6%

H D A

Norwich City v Watford

H 48.4% · D 26.5% · A 25.1%

H D A

Lincoln City v Birmingham City

H 35.8% · D 27.6% · A 36.6%

H D A

Wolverhampton Wanderers v Cardiff City

H 46.6% · D 26.8% · A 26.6%

H D A

West Ham United v West Bromwich Albion

H 45.6% · D 26.9% · A 27.4%

H D A

Swansea City v Blackburn Rovers

H 45.5% · D 27.0% · A 27.5%

H D A

Southampton v Queens Park Rangers

H 51.9% · D 25.9% · A 22.3%

H D A

Millwall v Derby County

H 48.7% · D 26.5% · A 24.9%

H D A

Middlesbrough v Charlton Athletic

H 56.2% · D 24.9% · A 18.9%

H D A

Burnley v Portsmouth

H 42.8% · D 27.3% · A 29.9%

H D A

Bolton Wanderers v Bristol City

H 41.2% · D 27.4% · A 31.4%

H D A

Charlton Athletic v Bolton Wanderers

H 35.6% · D 27.6% · A 36.8%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 407 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

No upward rank movement.

Biggest faller

No downward rank movement.

Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.

  1. Correction · Matchday 13

    Leader Southampton · 1,611.4 Elo · 1257 results

    #1 Southampton · #2 Middlesbrough · #3 West Ham United

  2. Matchday 13

    Leader Southampton · 1,611.4 Elo · 1257 results

    #1 Southampton · #2 Middlesbrough · #3 West Ham United

  3. Correction · Matchday 12

    Leader Southampton · 1,611.4 Elo · 1256 results

    #1 Southampton · #2 Middlesbrough · #3 West Ham United

  4. Matchday 12

    Leader Southampton · 1,611.4 Elo · 1256 results

    #1 Southampton · #2 Middlesbrough · #3 West Ham United

  5. Matchday 12

    Leader Southampton · 1,601.2 Elo · 1250 results

    #1 Southampton · #2 Middlesbrough · #3 West Ham United

  6. Matchday 12

    Leader Southampton · 1,601.2 Elo · 1248 results

    #1 Southampton · #2 Middlesbrough · #3 West Ham United

  7. Matchday 12

    Leader Southampton · 1,601.2 Elo · 1246 results

    #1 Southampton · #2 Middlesbrough · #3 West Ham United

  8. Correction · Matchday 12

    Leader Southampton · 1,601.2 Elo · 1245 results

    #1 Southampton · #2 Middlesbrough · #3 West Ham United

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Rating ahead

Burnley: Volt has them 14 places higher than the table.

Results ahead

Stoke City: the table has them 9 places higher than Volt.
  1. #1
    Southampton

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #6 Form #6 Elo 1,611.4 +8.5 last 5 LWWDW
    65.5 GV
  2. #2
    Middlesbrough

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #1 Form #1 Elo 1,584.7 +25.1 last 5 DWWDW
    62.0 GV
  3. #3
    West Ham United

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #3 Form #10 Elo 1,555.9 +15.6 last 5 DDWWL
    58.0 GV
  4. #4
    Swansea City

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #2 Form #9 Elo 1,540.4 +0.2 last 5 WWWLL
    55.8 GV
  5. #5
    Birmingham City

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #7 Form #2 Elo 1,532.3 +19.1 last 5 DWWWL
    54.6 GV
  6. #6
    Millwall

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #13 Form #16 Elo 1,524.1 −17.5 last 5 DWLDL
    53.5 GV
  7. #7
    Wolverhampton Wanderers

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #4 Form #13 Elo 1,521.7 −6.7 last 5 LLWDW
    53.1 GV
  8. #8
    Burnley

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #22 Form #15 Elo 1,520.8 −21.9 last 5 DWDLL
    53.0 GV
  9. #9
    Sheffield United

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #10 Form #4 Elo 1,507.5 +20.2 last 5 WLWDW
    51.1 GV
  10. #10
    West Bromwich Albion

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #5 Form #12 Elo 1,507.4 −0.8 last 5 LLWWD
    51.1 GV
  11. #11
    Queens Park Rangers

    The table ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #8 Form #11 Elo 1,504.4 +17.2 last 5 DDWLW
    50.6 GV
  12. #12
    Portsmouth

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #12 Form #7 Elo 1,498.3 +28.0 last 5 LWWDW
    49.8 GV
  13. #13
    Wrexham

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #17 Form #18 Elo 1,497.0 −25.7 last 5 DLWLL
    49.6 GV
  14. #14
    Blackburn Rovers

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #11 Form #5 Elo 1,492.7 +24.9 last 5 DWWLW
    49.0 GV
  15. #15
    Norwich City

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #20 Form #20 Elo 1,490.8 −27.0 last 5 LLLLW
    48.7 GV
  16. #16
    Lincoln City

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #15 Form #19 Elo 1,488.8 −21.1 last 5 LLLDW
    48.4 GV
  17. #17
    Bolton Wanderers

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #18 Form #14 Elo 1,481.5 +6.8 last 5 WLWDL
    47.3 GV
  18. #18
    Stoke City

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #9 Form #8 Elo 1,476.5 +22.9 last 5 WWLWD
    46.6 GV
  19. #19
    Bristol City

    The table ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #14 Form #17 Elo 1,474.6 −13.7 last 5 WDLLD
    46.4 GV
  20. #20
    Cardiff City

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #16 Form #3 Elo 1,464.6 +32.7 last 5 WLWDW
    44.9 GV
  21. #21
    Derby County

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #23 Form #21 Elo 1,447.4 −15.8 last 5 DDLLD
    42.5 GV
  22. #22
    Charlton Athletic

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #19 Form #23 Elo 1,435.8 −34.4 last 5 LDDLL
    40.9 GV
  23. #23
    Watford

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #21 Form #22 Elo 1,416.9 −25.9 last 5 LLLWL
    38.3 GV
  24. #24
    Preston North End

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #24 Form #24 Elo 1,396.9 −19.6 last 5 DLLLD
    35.6 GV
Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 1257 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

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