Netherlands

Eredivisie

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025

Power Paths 18 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 28.9%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

#1
Feyenoord Elo 1,645.7

Title 44.2%

Europe 86.0%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 2.1
#2
Ajax Elo 1,624.3

Title 13.3%

Europe 57.3%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 3.4
#3
PSV Elo 1,678.7

Title 32.1%

Europe 81.2%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 2.4
#4
FC Twente Elo 1,600.5

Title 6.8%

Europe 40.0%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 4.1
#5
AZ Alkmaar Elo 1,567.5

Title 3.1%

Europe 23.1%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 5.1
#6
Fortuna Sittard Elo 1,499.4

Title 0.3%

Europe 3.9%

Direct drop 0.2%

Exp. finish 7.9
#7
SC Heerenveen Elo 1,530.7

Title 0.1%

Europe 2.9%

Direct drop 0.2%

Exp. finish 8.2
#8
FC Groningen Elo 1,520.0

Title 0.1%

Europe 2.5%

Direct drop 0.3%

Exp. finish 8.3
#9
Go Ahead Eagles Elo 1,494.6

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.6%

Direct drop 1.3%

Exp. finish 10.3
#10
SC Cambuur Elo 1,492.6

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.3%

Direct drop 2.7%

Exp. finish 11.3
#11
FC Utrecht Elo 1,538.1

Title 0.1%

Europe 1.5%

Direct drop 0.8%

Exp. finish 9.5
#12
NEC Nijmegen Elo 1,532.9

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.6%

Direct drop 1.6%

Exp. finish 10.4
#13
Excelsior Elo 1,470.4

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.1%

Direct drop 5.4%

Exp. finish 12.2
#14
Sparta Rotterdam Elo 1,449.2

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.0%

Direct drop 16.8%

Exp. finish 14.0
#15
PEC Zwolle Elo 1,439.0

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.0%

Direct drop 24.9%

Exp. finish 14.5
#16
Telstar Elo 1,450.9

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.0%

Direct drop 29.1%

Exp. finish 14.9
#17
ADO Den Haag Elo 1,458.7

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.0%

Direct drop 25.4%

Exp. finish 14.6
#18
Willem II Elo 1,363.5

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.0%

Direct drop 91.4%

Exp. finish 17.6

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Sat 31 Oct
16:30

Feyenoord v Fortuna Sittard

H 55.0% · D 26.2% · A 18.8%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
18:45

SC Heerenveen v NEC Nijmegen

H 39.5% · D 28.8% · A 31.8%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
18:45

PSV v Willem II

H 70.3% · D 20.6% · A 9.1%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
21:00

SC Cambuur v Go Ahead Eagles

H 39.5% · D 28.8% · A 31.7%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
21:00

Ajax v AZ Alkmaar

H 45.7% · D 28.1% · A 26.2%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
12:15

PEC Zwolle v ADO Den Haag

H 37.6% · D 28.9% · A 33.5%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
14:30

Telstar v FC Utrecht

H 30.8% · D 28.7% · A 40.5%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
14:30

Excelsior v FC Twente

H 26.8% · D 28.2% · A 45.0%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
16:45

FC Groningen v Sparta Rotterdam

H 47.2% · D 27.9% · A 24.9%

H D A

Fri 6 Nov
20:00

Willem II v PEC Zwolle

H 32.0% · D 28.8% · A 39.2%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
16:30

Fortuna Sittard v Telstar

H 44.8% · D 28.2% · A 26.9%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
18:45

ADO Den Haag v Sparta Rotterdam

H 40.7% · D 28.7% · A 30.6%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 216 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

No upward rank movement.

Biggest faller

No downward rank movement.

Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.

Correction · Matchday 10
Sun 25 Oct

Leader PSV · 1,678.7 Elo · 706 results

#1 PSV · #2 Feyenoord · #3 Ajax
Matchday 10
Sun 25 Oct

Leader PSV · 1,678.7 Elo · 706 results

#1 PSV · #2 Feyenoord · #3 Ajax
Matchday 10
Sun 25 Oct

Leader PSV · 1,678.7 Elo · 705 results

#1 PSV · #2 Feyenoord · #3 Ajax
Matchday 10
Sun 25 Oct

Leader PSV · 1,678.7 Elo · 704 results

#1 PSV · #2 Feyenoord · #3 Ajax
Matchday 10
Sun 25 Oct

Leader PSV · 1,678.7 Elo · 703 results

#1 PSV · #2 Feyenoord · #3 Ajax
Matchday 10
Sun 25 Oct

Leader PSV · 1,680.9 Elo · 702 results

#1 PSV · #2 Feyenoord · #3 Ajax
Correction · Matchday 10
Sat 24 Oct

Leader PSV · 1,680.9 Elo · 701 results

#1 PSV · #2 Feyenoord · #3 Ajax
Matchday 10
Sat 24 Oct

Leader PSV · 1,680.9 Elo · 701 results

#1 PSV · #2 Feyenoord · #3 Ajax

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Rating ahead

FC Utrecht: Volt has them 5 places higher than the table.

Rating ahead

NEC Nijmegen: Volt has them 5 places higher than the table.

Rank Club GV Table Form Elo Last 5

#1
PSV
Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

Table #3 Form #9 Elo 1,678.7 −19.2 last 5 WLWLD

73.7 GV

#3 20 pts

#9 WLWLD
1,678.7 −19.2
#2
Feyenoord
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #1 Form #1 Elo 1,645.7 +40.1 last 5 WWWWD

69.8 GV

#1 24 pts

#1 WWWWD
1,645.7 +40.1
#3
Ajax
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #2 Form #3 Elo 1,624.3 +17.8 last 5 WDDWW

67.2 GV

#2 21 pts

#3 WDDWW
1,624.3 +17.8
#4
FC Twente
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #4 Form #5 Elo 1,600.5 +17.4 last 5 WWDLW

64.1 GV

#4 20 pts

#5 WWDLW
1,600.5 +17.4
#5
AZ Alkmaar
Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

Table #5 Form #12 Elo 1,567.5 −25.3 last 5 DWLDL

59.6 GV

#5 20 pts

#12 DWLDL
1,567.5 −25.3
#6
FC Utrecht
Volt ranks them higher than the table does.

Table #11 Form #6 Elo 1,538.1 +16.5 last 5 WLWWD

55.5 GV

#11 12 pts

#6 WLWWD
1,538.1 +16.5
#7
NEC Nijmegen
Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

Table #12 Form #13 Elo 1,532.9 −19.3 last 5 LDDDD

54.7 GV

#12 11 pts

#13 LDDDD
1,532.9 −19.3
#8
SC Heerenveen
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #7 Form #4 Elo 1,530.7 +29.4 last 5 DWLWW

54.4 GV

#7 15 pts

#4 DWLWW
1,530.7 +29.4
#9
FC Groningen
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #8 Form #7 Elo 1,520.0 +16.3 last 5 DWWLD

52.9 GV

#8 15 pts

#7 DWWLD
1,520.0 +16.3
#10
Fortuna Sittard
The table ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #6 Form #8 Elo 1,499.4 +10.0 last 5 LWDDW

49.9 GV

#6 18 pts

#8 LWDDW
1,499.4 +10.0
#11
Go Ahead Eagles
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #9 Form #10 Elo 1,494.6 −9.3 last 5 DDDLW

49.2 GV

#9 14 pts

#10 DDDLW
1,494.6 −9.3
#12
SC Cambuur
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #10 Form #2 Elo 1,492.6 +41.7 last 5 WDWDW

48.9 GV

#10 12 pts

#2 WDWDW
1,492.6 +41.7
#13
Excelsior
Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

Table #13 Form #17 Elo 1,470.4 −44.1 last 5 LDLLL

45.8 GV

#13 11 pts

#17 LDLLL
1,470.4 −44.1
#14
ADO Den Haag
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #17 Form #11 Elo 1,458.7 −0.5 last 5 LDDWL

44.1 GV

#17 6 pts

#11 LDDWL
1,458.7 −0.5
#15
Telstar
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #16 Form #16 Elo 1,450.9 −19.9 last 5 DLDLL

43.0 GV

#16 6 pts

#16 DLDLL
1,450.9 −19.9
#16
Sparta Rotterdam
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #14 Form #14 Elo 1,449.2 −16.5 last 5 LLDWL

42.7 GV

#14 9 pts

#14 LLDWL
1,449.2 −16.5
#17
PEC Zwolle
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #15 Form #15 Elo 1,439.0 −11.7 last 5 LLLWD

41.3 GV

#15 8 pts

#15 LLLWD
1,439.0 −11.7
#18
Willem II
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #18 Form #18 Elo 1,363.5 −41.4 last 5 LLLLL

31.3 GV

#18 2 pts

#18 LLLLL
1,363.5 −41.4

Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 706 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

Eredivisie

Every resultchanges the route.

Baseline probabilities

Lock the next result

How the ranking moved

Power, table and form

Every result
changes the route.