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La Liga 2
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La Liga 2

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025
Power Paths 22 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Draw calibration unavailable

Projection unavailable

Power Paths could not run

A league fixture is currently live; Power Paths refreshes after it settles.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

Córdoba +0.8 Elo

Biggest faller

Celta Fortuna −0.7 Elo

  1. Matchday 12

    Leader Castellón · 1,609.7 Elo · 1059 results

    #1 Castellón · #2 Almería · #3 Burgos

  2. Matchday 12

    Leader Castellón · 1,609.7 Elo · 1058 results

    #1 Castellón · #2 Almería · #3 Burgos

  3. Matchday 12

    Leader Castellón · 1,609.7 Elo · 1057 results

    #1 Castellón · #2 Almería · #3 Burgos

  4. Correction · Matchday 11

    Leader Castellón · 1,609.7 Elo · 1056 results

    #1 Castellón · #2 Almería · #3 Burgos

  5. Matchday 11

    Leader Castellón · 1,609.7 Elo · 1056 results

    #1 Castellón · #2 Almería · #3 Burgos

  6. Correction · Matchday 11

    Leader Castellón · 1,609.7 Elo · 1055 results

    #1 Castellón · #2 Almería · #3 SD Eibar

  7. Matchday 11

    Leader Castellón · 1,609.7 Elo · 1055 results

    #1 Castellón · #2 Almería · #3 SD Eibar

  8. Matchday 11

    Leader Almería · 1,602.3 Elo · 1054 results

    #1 Almería · #2 Castellón · #3 SD Eibar

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Results ahead

Granada: the table has them 6 places higher than Volt.

Rating ahead

Las Palmas: Volt has them 5 places higher than the table.
  1. #1
    Castellón

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #1 Form #3 Elo 1,609.7 +16.3 last 5 WDLWW
    65.3 GV
  2. #2
    Almería

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #2 Form #2 Elo 1,602.4 +22.5 last 5 WWWDD
    64.3 GV
  3. #3
    Burgos

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #6 Form #7 Elo 1,570.6 +0.7 last 5 WLLWW
    60.0 GV
  4. #4
    SD Eibar

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #3 Form #15 Elo 1,567.6 −21.3 last 5 WLDLD
    59.6 GV
  5. #5
    Real Oviedo

    Volt ranks them higher than the table does.

    Table #9 Form #5 Elo 1,557.0 +18.5 last 5 WLWWD
    58.1 GV
  6. #6
    Girona

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #4 Form #9 Elo 1,534.5 +7.1 last 5 DDWWL
    55.0 GV
  7. #7
    Mallorca

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #7 Form #13 Elo 1,534.1 +3.9 last 5 LDWDD
    54.9 GV
  8. #8
    Sabadell

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #10 Form #14 Elo 1,520.1 −3.5 last 5 DDWLD
    52.9 GV
  9. #9
    Las Palmas

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #14 Form #19 Elo 1,519.1 −29.3 last 5 LDLLW
    52.7 GV
  10. #10
    Sporting Gijón

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #8 Form #8 Elo 1,518.6 +3.3 last 5 LWWWL
    52.7 GV
  11. #11
    Granada

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #5 Form #1 Elo 1,511.3 +28.9 last 5 LWWWW
    51.6 GV
  12. #12
    Córdoba

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #11 Form #4 Elo 1,495.7 +25.8 last 5 WLWWD
    49.4 GV
  13. #13
    Celta Fortuna

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #16 Form #16 Elo 1,479.2 −11.1 last 5 LWDLD
    47.0 GV
  14. #14
    Eldense

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #13 Form #6 Elo 1,473.2 +17.7 last 5 LWWWL
    46.1 GV
  15. #15
    Tenerife

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #12 Form #17 Elo 1,473.2 −7.2 last 5 DLDDD
    46.1 GV
  16. #16
    FC Andorra

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #19 Form #12 Elo 1,473.1 +7.6 last 5 WDWLL
    46.1 GV
  17. #17
    Real Valladolid

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #15 Form #10 Elo 1,451.4 +11.1 last 5 WDWLL
    43.1 GV
  18. #18
    Albacete

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #22 Form #21 Elo 1,445.5 −26.2 last 5 LLLLW
    42.2 GV
  19. #19
    Leganés

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #17 Form #22 Elo 1,443.0 −42.5 last 5 LLLLD
    41.9 GV
  20. #20
    Real Sociedad II

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #20 Form #20 Elo 1,440.5 −25.3 last 5 LLLLW
    41.5 GV
  21. #21
    Ceuta

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #21 Form #18 Elo 1,435.5 −13.6 last 5 WDLLL
    40.8 GV
  22. #22
    Cádiz

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #18 Form #11 Elo 1,424.9 +13.8 last 5 DWLLW
    39.4 GV
Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 1059 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

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