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La Liga

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025
Power Paths 20 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 27.0%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

Now Club Title Europe Direct drop Expected finish
  1. #1
    FC Barcelona Elo 1,722.6
    Title 71.2%
    Europe 100.0%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 1.4
  2. #2
    Atlético de Madrid Elo 1,619.3
    Title 7.2%
    Europe 99.3%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 2.9
  3. #3
    Real Madrid Elo 1,673.8
    Title 20.7%
    Europe 99.9%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 2.2
  4. #4
    Real Betis Elo 1,576.4
    Title 0.8%
    Europe 89.3%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 4.5
  5. #5
    Real Sociedad Elo 1,520.4
    Title 0.1%
    Europe 62.0%
    Direct drop 0.3%
    Exp. finish 6.5
  6. #6
    Sevilla Elo 1,492.6
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 36.3%
    Direct drop 1.5%
    Exp. finish 8.4
  7. #7
    Deportivo Alavés Elo 1,472.5
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 7.5%
    Direct drop 14.2%
    Exp. finish 12.6
  8. #8
    Celta de Vigo Elo 1,514.5
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 17.0%
    Direct drop 6.3%
    Exp. finish 10.6
  9. #9
    Athletic Club Elo 1,493.6
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 14.8%
    Direct drop 7.0%
    Exp. finish 11.0
  10. #10
    Villarreal Elo 1,545.8
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 27.7%
    Direct drop 2.6%
    Exp. finish 9.2
  11. #11
    Deportivo A Coruña Elo 1,494.1
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 10.7%
    Direct drop 10.3%
    Exp. finish 11.8
  12. #12
    Espanyol Elo 1,453.9
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 2.7%
    Direct drop 26.3%
    Exp. finish 14.4
  13. #13
    Osasuna Elo 1,449.9
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 2.6%
    Direct drop 29.6%
    Exp. finish 14.7
  14. #14
    Racing Santander Elo 1,475.3
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 5.5%
    Direct drop 18.8%
    Exp. finish 13.3
  15. #15
    Levante Elo 1,479.9
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 6.3%
    Direct drop 16.0%
    Exp. finish 12.9
  16. #16
    Elche Elo 1,484.4
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 8.2%
    Direct drop 13.3%
    Exp. finish 12.4
  17. #17
    Rayo Vallecano Elo 1,492.6
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 5.9%
    Direct drop 18.2%
    Exp. finish 13.2
  18. #18
    Getafe Elo 1,464.6
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 2.9%
    Direct drop 30.5%
    Exp. finish 14.7
  19. #19
    Valencia Elo 1,464.7
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 1.1%
    Direct drop 44.7%
    Exp. finish 16.1
  20. #20
    Málaga Elo 1,449.5
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 0.5%
    Direct drop 60.5%
    Exp. finish 17.2

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Levante v Atlético de Madrid

H 26.6% · D 26.2% · A 47.2%

H D A

Rayo Vallecano v Celta de Vigo

H 38.4% · D 27.0% · A 34.6%

H D A

Real Betis v Málaga

H 54.3% · D 24.9% · A 20.8%

H D A

FC Barcelona v Deportivo Alavés

H 66.3% · D 21.3% · A 12.5%

H D A

Getafe v Sevilla

H 37.8% · D 27.0% · A 35.2%

H D A

Racing Santander v Real Madrid

H 21.5% · D 25.1% · A 53.5%

H D A

Elche v Valencia

H 42.9% · D 26.7% · A 30.4%

H D A

Athletic Club v Real Sociedad

H 37.9% · D 27.0% · A 35.1%

H D A

Deportivo A Coruña v Osasuna

H 45.5% · D 26.4% · A 28.0%

H D A

Sevilla v Deportivo Alavés

H 42.9% · D 26.7% · A 30.4%

H D A

Málaga v Racing Santander

H 38.0% · D 27.0% · A 35.0%

H D A

Espanyol v Deportivo A Coruña

H 36.5% · D 27.0% · A 36.5%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 279 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

No upward rank movement.

Biggest faller

No downward rank movement.

Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.

  1. Correction · Matchday 11

    Leader FC Barcelona · 1,722.6 Elo · 860 results

    #1 FC Barcelona · #2 Real Madrid · #3 Atlético de Madrid

  2. Matchday 11

    Leader FC Barcelona · 1,722.6 Elo · 860 results

    #1 FC Barcelona · #2 Real Madrid · #3 Atlético de Madrid

  3. Correction · Matchday 10

    Leader FC Barcelona · 1,722.6 Elo · 859 results

    #1 FC Barcelona · #2 Real Madrid · #3 Atlético de Madrid

  4. Matchday 10

    Leader FC Barcelona · 1,722.6 Elo · 859 results

    #1 FC Barcelona · #2 Real Madrid · #3 Atlético de Madrid

  5. Correction · Matchday 10

    Leader FC Barcelona · 1,722.6 Elo · 858 results

    #1 FC Barcelona · #2 Real Madrid · #3 Atlético de Madrid

  6. Matchday 10

    Leader FC Barcelona · 1,722.6 Elo · 858 results

    #1 FC Barcelona · #2 Real Madrid · #3 Atlético de Madrid

  7. Matchday 10

    Leader FC Barcelona · 1,735.8 Elo · 857 results

    #1 FC Barcelona · #2 Real Madrid · #3 Atlético de Madrid

  8. Matchday 10

    Leader FC Barcelona · 1,735.8 Elo · 856 results

    #1 FC Barcelona · #2 Real Madrid · #3 Atlético de Madrid

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Results ahead

Deportivo Alavés: the table has them 8 places higher than Volt.

Rating ahead

Rayo Vallecano: Volt has them 7 places higher than the table.
  1. #1
    FC Barcelona

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #1 Form #2 Elo 1,722.6 +14.0 last 5 WWWWL
    78.3 GV
  2. #2
    Real Madrid

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #3 Form #3 Elo 1,673.8 +21.1 last 5 WLWWW
    73.1 GV
  3. #3
    Atlético de Madrid

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #2 Form #1 Elo 1,619.3 +40.3 last 5 WWWWW
    66.5 GV
  4. #4
    Real Betis

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #4 Form #7 Elo 1,576.4 +2.6 last 5 WDWLD
    60.8 GV
  5. #5
    Villarreal

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #10 Form #8 Elo 1,545.8 −6.9 last 5 WLDWL
    56.6 GV
  6. #6
    Real Sociedad

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #5 Form #4 Elo 1,520.4 +30.6 last 5 LWWWW
    52.9 GV
  7. #7
    Celta de Vigo

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #8 Form #5 Elo 1,514.5 +21.3 last 5 DWDWD
    52.1 GV
  8. #8
    Deportivo A Coruña

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #11 Form #18 Elo 1,494.1 −28.7 last 5 LDLDL
    49.2 GV
  9. #9
    Athletic Club

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #9 Form #10 Elo 1,493.6 −1.4 last 5 DDDLW
    49.1 GV
  10. #10
    Rayo Vallecano

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #17 Form #13 Elo 1,492.6 −16.5 last 5 LWDDL
    48.9 GV
  11. #11
    Sevilla

    The table ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #6 Form #9 Elo 1,492.6 +10.3 last 5 WLDLW
    48.9 GV
  12. #12
    Elche

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #16 Form #6 Elo 1,484.4 +29.5 last 5 LWDDW
    47.8 GV
  13. #13
    Levante

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #15 Form #11 Elo 1,479.9 −4.2 last 5 LDDWL
    47.1 GV
  14. #14
    Racing Santander

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #14 Form #17 Elo 1,475.3 −25.2 last 5 LLDLW
    46.4 GV
  15. #15
    Deportivo Alavés

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #7 Form #19 Elo 1,472.5 −28.9 last 5 LDLLD
    46.1 GV
  16. #16
    Valencia

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #19 Form #12 Elo 1,464.7 −7.6 last 5 WLDDL
    44.9 GV
  17. #17
    Getafe

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #18 Form #15 Elo 1,464.6 −15.4 last 5 LWLDL
    44.9 GV
  18. #18
    Espanyol

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #12 Form #14 Elo 1,453.9 −14.0 last 5 LDLLW
    43.4 GV
  19. #19
    Osasuna

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #13 Form #16 Elo 1,449.9 −14.1 last 5 LDLWL
    42.8 GV
  20. #20
    Málaga

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #20 Form #20 Elo 1,449.5 −34.1 last 5 LLDLD
    42.8 GV
Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 860 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

⌘K

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