Poland
1. Liga
Season probability engine / Power Paths
Every result
changes the route.
A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.
Projection unavailable
Power Paths could not run
A league fixture is currently live; Power Paths refreshes after it settles.
Power Race / archived checkpoints
How the ranking moved
Biggest riser
No upward rank movement.
Biggest faller
No downward rank movement.
Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.
-
Correction · Matchday 13
Leader Nieciecza · 1,558.8 Elo · 1032 results
#1 Nieciecza · #2 Ruch Chorzów · #3 ŁKS Łódź
-
Matchday 13
Leader Nieciecza · 1,558.8 Elo · 1032 results
#1 Nieciecza · #2 Ruch Chorzów · #3 ŁKS Łódź
-
Correction · Matchday 12
Leader Nieciecza · 1,558.8 Elo · 1031 results
#1 Nieciecza · #2 Ruch Chorzów · #3 ŁKS Łódź
-
Matchday 12
Leader Nieciecza · 1,558.8 Elo · 1031 results
#1 Nieciecza · #2 Ruch Chorzów · #3 ŁKS Łódź
-
Correction · Matchday 12
Leader Nieciecza · 1,558.8 Elo · 1030 results
#1 Nieciecza · #2 Ruch Chorzów · #3 Polonia Warszawa
-
Matchday 12
Leader Nieciecza · 1,558.8 Elo · 1030 results
#1 Nieciecza · #2 Ruch Chorzów · #3 Polonia Warszawa
-
Matchday 12
Leader Nieciecza · 1,558.8 Elo · 1029 results
#1 Nieciecza · #2 Ruch Chorzów · #3 Polonia Warszawa
-
Matchday 12
Leader Nieciecza · 1,558.8 Elo · 1028 results
#1 Nieciecza · #2 Polonia Warszawa · #3 Ruch Chorzów
GolVolt results-only model
Power, table and form
Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.
-
#1
Nieciecza
Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.
Table #5 Form #5 Elo 1,558.8 +10.0 last 5 WWDWL58.4 GV#5 20 pts#5 WWDWL -
#2
57.6 GV#3 21 pts#2 DDWWW
-
#3
ŁKS Łódź
Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.
Table #4 Form #8 Elo 1,550.1 −2.1 last 5 WLLWW57.2 GV#4 21 pts#8 WLLWW -
#4
Polonia Warszawa
Volt, table and form broadly agree.
Table #2 Form #3 Elo 1,548.1 +30.0 last 5 DWWWD56.9 GV#2 21 pts#3 DWWWD -
#5
Lechia Gdańsk
Volt and recent results tell different stories.
Table #6 Form #1 Elo 1,540.8 +28.9 last 5 WWWWL55.8 GV#6 19 pts#1 WWWWL -
#6
Arka Gdynia
Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.
Table #13 Form #16 Elo 1,537.7 −36.6 last 5 LLLLW55.4 GV#13 14 pts#16 LLLLW -
#7
Miedź Legnica
Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.
Table #7 Form #15 Elo 1,529.8 −22.2 last 5 LLLWD54.3 GV#7 18 pts#15 LLLWD -
#8
Polonia Bytom
Volt and recent results tell different stories.
Table #9 Form #4 Elo 1,514.5 +32.1 last 5 DDWWW52.1 GV#9 18 pts#4 DDWWW -
#9
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Volt and recent results tell different stories.
Table #1 Form #11 Elo 1,503.1 −5.6 last 5 WWLLL50.4 GV#1 21 pts#11 WWLLL -
#10
Puszcza Niepołomice
Volt ranks them higher than the table does.
Table #16 Form #12 Elo 1,490.4 −5.1 last 5 LLWLW48.6 GV#16 12 pts#12 LLWLW -
#11
Chrobry Głogów
Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.
Table #15 Form #18 Elo 1,483.2 −38.5 last 5 DLLLD47.6 GV#15 13 pts#18 DLLLD -
#12
Stal Rzeszów
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.
Table #10 Form #7 Elo 1,465.3 +17.4 last 5 WWLWL45.0 GV#10 17 pts#7 WWLWL -
#13
Podbeskidzie
Volt and recent results tell different stories.
Table #14 Form #9 Elo 1,463.8 +14.8 last 5 DDWLW44.8 GV#14 14 pts#9 DDWLW -
#14
Stal Mielec
The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.
Table #11 Form #10 Elo 1,463.7 +0.2 last 5 LWLDW44.8 GV#11 16 pts#10 LWLDW -
#15
Unia Skierniewice
Volt and recent results tell different stories.
Table #18 Form #14 Elo 1,461.0 −7.7 last 5 WDDLL44.4 GV#18 11 pts#14 WDDLL -
#16
Warta Poznań
The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.
Table #8 Form #6 Elo 1,460.6 +18.3 last 5 WWLWL44.4 GV#8 18 pts#6 WWLWL -
#17
43.3 GV#17 12 pts#17 LLWLL
-
#18
Pogoń Siedlce
The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.
Table #12 Form #13 Elo 1,451.3 −10.3 last 5 WLLLW43.0 GV#12 15 pts#13 WLLLW
Method and limits
Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.
Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.
GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.
Coverage: 1032 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.
Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.
Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.
Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.
Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.