Poland

Ekstraklasa

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025

Power Paths 18 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 23.2%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

#1
Lech Poznań Elo 1,652.4

Title 76.4%

Europe 99.0%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 1.4
#2
Górnik Zabrze Elo 1,594.0

Title 13.1%

Europe 85.6%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 2.9
#3
Legia Warszawa Elo 1,580.0

Title 3.6%

Europe 64.3%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 4.2
#4
Pogoń Szczecin Elo 1,568.7

Title 5.6%

Europe 68.2%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 4.0
#5
Piast Gliwice Elo 1,521.0

Title 0.3%

Europe 15.1%

Direct drop 0.3%

Exp. finish 7.4
#6
Wisła Kraków Elo 1,524.8

Title 0.3%

Europe 17.0%

Direct drop 0.2%

Exp. finish 7.1
#7
Katowice Elo 1,536.5

Title 0.4%

Europe 18.4%

Direct drop 0.2%

Exp. finish 7.0
#8
Zagłębie Lubin Elo 1,506.8

Title 0.1%

Europe 7.4%

Direct drop 1.1%

Exp. finish 8.7
#9
Jagiellonia Białystok Elo 1,539.1

Title 0.2%

Europe 14.1%

Direct drop 0.4%

Exp. finish 7.7
#10
Korona Kielce Elo 1,505.9

Title 0.1%

Europe 8.4%

Direct drop 1.3%

Exp. finish 8.7
#11
Motor Lublin Elo 1,489.3

Title 0.0%

Europe 1.3%

Direct drop 5.7%

Exp. finish 11.1
#12
Wisła Płock Elo 1,477.4

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.9%

Direct drop 8.7%

Exp. finish 11.6
#13
Cracovia Kraków Elo 1,455.1

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.2%

Direct drop 30.8%

Exp. finish 13.9
#14
Widzew Lodz Elo 1,470.7

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.1%

Direct drop 27.6%

Exp. finish 13.7
#15
Śląsk Wrocław Elo 1,440.6

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.0%

Direct drop 46.4%

Exp. finish 14.9
#16
Radomiak Radom Elo 1,435.9

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.0%

Direct drop 58.9%

Exp. finish 15.6
#17
Wieczysta Kraków Elo 1,438.0

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.0%

Direct drop 64.3%

Exp. finish 15.9
#18
Raków Częstochowa Elo 1,475.2

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.0%

Direct drop 54.2%

Exp. finish 15.3

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Mon 2 Nov
18:00

Zagłębie Lubin v Korona Kielce

H 43.0% · D 23.1% · A 33.9%

H D A

Mon 2 Nov
18:00

Radomiak Radom v Śląsk Wrocław

H 42.3% · D 23.1% · A 34.5%

H D A

Mon 2 Nov
20:30

Raków Częstochowa v Pogoń Szczecin

H 32.6% · D 23.0% · A 44.4%

H D A

Fri 6 Nov
18:00

Motor Lublin v Wisła Płock

H 44.2% · D 23.0% · A 32.8%

H D A

Fri 6 Nov
20:30

Wisła Kraków v Cracovia Kraków

H 50.7% · D 22.4% · A 27.0%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
12:15

Korona Kielce v Radomiak Radom

H 50.7% · D 22.3% · A 26.9%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
14:45

Śląsk Wrocław v Piast Gliwice

H 34.0% · D 23.1% · A 42.9%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
17:30

Górnik Zabrze v Wieczysta Kraków

H 60.0% · D 20.6% · A 19.4%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
20:15

Widzew Lodz v Pogoń Szczecin

H 32.1% · D 23.0% · A 44.9%

H D A

Sun 8 Nov
14:45

Jagiellonia Białystok v Katowice

H 43.2% · D 23.1% · A 33.8%

H D A

Sun 8 Nov
17:30

Legia Warszawa v Raków Częstochowa

H 54.6% · D 21.7% · A 23.7%

H D A

Sun 8 Nov
20:15

Lech Poznań v Zagłębie Lubin

H 58.9% · D 20.9% · A 20.2%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 194 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

No upward rank movement.

Biggest faller

No downward rank movement.

Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.

Correction · Matchday 13
Sat 31 Oct

Leader Lech Poznań · 1,652.4 Elo · 724 results

#1 Lech Poznań · #2 Górnik Zabrze · #3 Legia Warszawa
Matchday 13
Sat 31 Oct

Leader Lech Poznań · 1,652.4 Elo · 724 results

#1 Lech Poznań · #2 Górnik Zabrze · #3 Legia Warszawa
Matchday 13
Sat 31 Oct

Leader Lech Poznań · 1,652.4 Elo · 723 results

#1 Lech Poznań · #2 Górnik Zabrze · #3 Legia Warszawa
Matchday 13
Sat 31 Oct

Leader Lech Poznań · 1,645.1 Elo · 722 results

#1 Lech Poznań · #2 Górnik Zabrze · #3 Legia Warszawa
Matchday 13
Sat 31 Oct

Leader Lech Poznań · 1,645.1 Elo · 721 results

#1 Lech Poznań · #2 Górnik Zabrze · #3 Legia Warszawa
Correction · Matchday 13
Fri 30 Oct

Leader Lech Poznań · 1,645.1 Elo · 720 results

#1 Lech Poznań · #2 Górnik Zabrze · #3 Legia Warszawa
Matchday 13
Fri 30 Oct

Leader Lech Poznań · 1,645.1 Elo · 720 results

#1 Lech Poznań · #2 Górnik Zabrze · #3 Legia Warszawa
Matchday 13
Fri 30 Oct

Leader Lech Poznań · 1,645.1 Elo · 719 results

#1 Lech Poznań · #2 Górnik Zabrze · #3 Legia Warszawa

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Rating ahead

Raków Częstochowa: Volt has them 5 places higher than the table.

Rating ahead

Jagiellonia Białystok: Volt has them 4 places higher than the table.

Rank Club GV Table Form Elo Last 5

#1
Lech Poznań
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #1 Form #1 Elo 1,652.4 +42.5 last 5 WWWWW

70.6 GV

#1 31 pts

#1 WWWWW
1,652.4 +42.5
#2
Górnik Zabrze
Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

Table #2 Form #7 Elo 1,594.0 +1.9 last 5 DWDDD

63.2 GV

#2 28 pts

#7 DWDDD
1,594.0 +1.9
#3
Legia Warszawa
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #3 Form #5 Elo 1,580.0 +12.5 last 5 WWDLD

61.3 GV

#3 24 pts

#5 WWDLD
1,580.0 +12.5
#4
Pogoń Szczecin
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #4 Form #2 Elo 1,568.7 +46.7 last 5 WWWWW

59.8 GV

#4 24 pts

#2 WWWWW
1,568.7 +46.7
#5
Jagiellonia Białystok
Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

Table #9 Form #11 Elo 1,539.1 −16.5 last 5 LLLWW

55.6 GV

#9 18 pts

#11 LLLWW
1,539.1 −16.5
#6
Katowice
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #7 Form #4 Elo 1,536.5 +7.0 last 5 WWLLW

55.2 GV

#7 21 pts

#4 WWLLW
1,536.5 +7.0
#7
Wisła Kraków
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #6 Form #9 Elo 1,524.8 −2.4 last 5 WLDWL

53.6 GV

#6 21 pts

#9 WLDWL
1,524.8 −2.4
#8
Piast Gliwice
The table ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #5 Form #6 Elo 1,521.0 +11.2 last 5 LWDWD

53.0 GV

#5 21 pts

#6 LWDWD
1,521.0 +11.2
#9
Zagłębie Lubin
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #8 Form #10 Elo 1,506.8 −7.3 last 5 WLLWD

51.0 GV

#8 19 pts

#10 WLLWD
1,506.8 −7.3
#10
Korona Kielce
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #10 Form #12 Elo 1,505.9 −11.9 last 5 LWLLW

50.9 GV

#10 18 pts

#12 LWLLW
1,505.9 −11.9
#11
Motor Lublin
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #11 Form #3 Elo 1,489.3 +32.2 last 5 DWWDW

48.5 GV

#11 16 pts

#3 DWWDW
1,489.3 +32.2
#12
Wisła Płock
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #12 Form #8 Elo 1,477.4 +2.7 last 5 WLWLD

46.7 GV

#12 15 pts

#8 WLWLD
1,477.4 +2.7
#13
Raków Częstochowa
Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

Table #18 Form #17 Elo 1,475.2 −29.6 last 5 LLLWL

46.4 GV

#18 6 pts

#17 LLLWL
1,475.2 −29.6
#14
Widzew Lodz
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #14 Form #14 Elo 1,470.7 −15.0 last 5 DLDDL

45.8 GV

#14 11 pts

#14 DLDDL
1,470.7 −15.0
#15
Cracovia Kraków
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #13 Form #13 Elo 1,455.1 −13.0 last 5 LWDLL

43.6 GV

#13 12 pts

#13 LWDLL
1,455.1 −13.0
#16
Śląsk Wrocław
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #15 Form #16 Elo 1,440.6 −21.1 last 5 LLLLW

41.5 GV

#15 9 pts

#16 LLLLW
1,440.6 −21.1
#17
Wieczysta Kraków
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #17 Form #15 Elo 1,438.0 −28.3 last 5 WLLLL

41.2 GV

#17 8 pts

#15 WLLLL
1,438.0 −28.3
#18
Radomiak Radom
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #16 Form #18 Elo 1,435.9 −46.0 last 5 LLLLL

40.9 GV

#16 8 pts

#18 LLLLL
1,435.9 −46.0

Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 724 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

Ekstraklasa

Every resultchanges the route.

Baseline probabilities

Lock the next result

How the ranking moved

Power, table and form

Every result
changes the route.