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Ligue 2
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France

Ligue 2

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025
Power Paths 18 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Draw calibration unavailable

Projection unavailable

Power Paths could not run

A league fixture is currently live; Power Paths refreshes after it settles.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

Montpellier +1 place

Biggest faller

Reims -1 place

  1. Matchday 11

    Leader Saint-Étienne · 1,599.8 Elo · 708 results

    #1 Saint-Étienne · #2 Montpellier · #3 Reims

  2. Correction · Matchday 11

    Leader Saint-Étienne · 1,599.8 Elo · 707 results

    #1 Saint-Étienne · #2 Reims · #3 Montpellier

  3. Matchday 11

    Leader Saint-Étienne · 1,599.8 Elo · 707 results

    #1 Saint-Étienne · #2 Reims · #3 Montpellier

  4. Matchday 11

    Leader Saint-Étienne · 1,599.8 Elo · 705 results

    #1 Saint-Étienne · #2 Reims · #3 Montpellier

  5. Correction · Matchday 10

    Leader Saint-Étienne · 1,599.8 Elo · 702 results

    #1 Saint-Étienne · #2 Reims · #3 Montpellier

  6. Matchday 10

    Leader Saint-Étienne · 1,599.8 Elo · 702 results

    #1 Saint-Étienne · #2 Reims · #3 Montpellier

  7. Correction · Matchday 10

    Leader Saint-Étienne · 1,599.8 Elo · 700 results

    #1 Saint-Étienne · #2 Reims · #3 Montpellier

  8. Matchday 10

    Leader Saint-Étienne · 1,599.8 Elo · 700 results

    #1 Saint-Étienne · #2 Reims · #3 Montpellier

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Results ahead

Nancy: the table has them 6 places higher than Volt.

Rating ahead

Metz: Volt has them 5 places higher than the table.
  1. #1
    Saint-Étienne

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #1 Form #4 Elo 1,599.8 +13.9 last 5 LDWWW
    64.0 GV
  2. #2
    Montpellier

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #2 Form #2 Elo 1,581.0 +48.1 last 5 DWWWW
    61.5 GV
  3. #3
    Reims

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #5 Form #5 Elo 1,575.2 +11.7 last 5 WDDWD
    60.7 GV
  4. #4
    Metz

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #9 Form #15 Elo 1,539.5 −23.5 last 5 DLWDL
    55.7 GV
  5. #5
    Red Star

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #6 Form #6 Elo 1,534.3 +11.9 last 5 WWWLL
    54.9 GV
  6. #6
    Annecy

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #7 Form #9 Elo 1,519.4 −16.4 last 5 LWLWL
    52.8 GV
  7. #7
    Rodez

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #10 Form #10 Elo 1,516.9 −17.0 last 5 LLLWW
    52.4 GV
  8. #8
    Pau

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #3 Form #1 Elo 1,508.3 +55.2 last 5 WWWWW
    51.2 GV
  9. #9
    Dijon

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #8 Form #7 Elo 1,506.1 +17.4 last 5 WWLLW
    50.9 GV
  10. #10
    Nancy

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #4 Form #3 Elo 1,501.0 +33.0 last 5 LWWWW
    50.1 GV
  11. #11
    Sochaux

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #13 Form #14 Elo 1,480.8 −15.7 last 5 WDDLL
    47.2 GV
  12. #12
    Dunkerque

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #11 Form #16 Elo 1,473.1 −17.7 last 5 LLWDL
    46.1 GV
  13. #13
    Nantes

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #15 Form #12 Elo 1,461.8 −7.0 last 5 WDLLD
    44.5 GV
  14. #14
    Guingamp

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #12 Form #8 Elo 1,457.0 −5.7 last 5 WLLLW
    43.8 GV
  15. #15
    Boulogne

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #14 Form #11 Elo 1,453.0 −0.9 last 5 LDWDL
    43.3 GV
  16. #16
    Grenoble Foot 38

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #18 Form #18 Elo 1,438.2 −46.5 last 5 DLLLL
    41.2 GV
  17. #17
    Clermont

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #17 Form #17 Elo 1,433.4 −17.6 last 5 DLDLD
    40.5 GV
  18. #18
    Laval

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #16 Form #13 Elo 1,432.5 −5.1 last 5 DLDLW
    40.4 GV
Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 708 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

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