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Ligue 1
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France

Ligue 1

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025
Power Paths 18 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 25.3%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

Now Club Title Europe Direct drop Expected finish
  1. #1
    Paris Saint Germain Elo 1,670.3
    Title 70.5%
    Europe 99.1%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 1.6
  2. #2
    LOSC Lille Elo 1,591.5
    Title 10.5%
    Europe 82.7%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 4.2
  3. #3
    Rennes Elo 1,553.6
    Title 2.5%
    Europe 56.6%
    Direct drop 0.1%
    Exp. finish 6.3
  4. #4
    Monaco Elo 1,568.6
    Title 5.7%
    Europe 69.8%
    Direct drop 0.1%
    Exp. finish 5.2
  5. #5
    Olympique Lyonnais Elo 1,570.5
    Title 4.4%
    Europe 65.9%
    Direct drop 0.1%
    Exp. finish 5.6
  6. #6
    Paris Elo 1,540.5
    Title 2.1%
    Europe 50.0%
    Direct drop 0.2%
    Exp. finish 6.9
  7. #7
    Nice Elo 1,492.5
    Title 0.2%
    Europe 17.2%
    Direct drop 2.0%
    Exp. finish 9.9
  8. #8
    Lens Elo 1,576.0
    Title 2.3%
    Europe 53.6%
    Direct drop 0.1%
    Exp. finish 6.6
  9. #9
    Olympique Marseille Elo 1,552.3
    Title 1.2%
    Europe 45.0%
    Direct drop 0.3%
    Exp. finish 7.3
  10. #10
    Lorient Elo 1,518.5
    Title 0.4%
    Europe 23.1%
    Direct drop 1.5%
    Exp. finish 9.3
  11. #11
    Toulouse Elo 1,509.4
    Title 0.1%
    Europe 14.0%
    Direct drop 3.3%
    Exp. finish 10.7
  12. #12
    Auxerre Elo 1,473.2
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 4.8%
    Direct drop 10.0%
    Exp. finish 12.7
  13. #13
    Brest Elo 1,473.2
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 4.8%
    Direct drop 10.7%
    Exp. finish 12.7
  14. #14
    Angers SCO Elo 1,431.5
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 0.7%
    Direct drop 33.3%
    Exp. finish 15.0
  15. #15
    Le Mans Elo 1,480.2
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 3.1%
    Direct drop 14.4%
    Exp. finish 13.3
  16. #16
    Strasbourg Elo 1,514.2
    Title 0.1%
    Europe 8.9%
    Direct drop 5.2%
    Exp. finish 11.5
  17. #17
    Troyes Elo 1,455.4
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 0.7%
    Direct drop 37.1%
    Exp. finish 15.2
  18. #18
    Le Havre Elo 1,407.0
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 0.0%
    Direct drop 81.5%
    Exp. finish 17.3

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Troyes v Le Mans

H 39.0% · D 25.3% · A 35.7%

H D A

Strasbourg v Auxerre

H 46.2% · D 24.8% · A 29.0%

H D A

Paris v Monaco

H 38.6% · D 25.3% · A 36.1%

H D A

Olympique Lyonnais v Angers SCO

H 56.7% · D 23.0% · A 20.3%

H D A

Olympique Marseille v Toulouse

H 46.4% · D 24.8% · A 28.8%

H D A

Lorient v Brest

H 46.7% · D 24.8% · A 28.6%

H D A

Toulouse v Strasbourg

H 41.2% · D 25.2% · A 33.6%

H D A

Auxerre v Paris

H 34.4% · D 25.3% · A 40.3%

H D A

Paris Saint Germain v Troyes

H 64.3% · D 20.9% · A 14.8%

H D A

Rennes v LOSC Lille

H 37.6% · D 25.3% · A 37.1%

H D A

Le Mans v Monaco

H 32.2% · D 25.2% · A 42.6%

H D A

Le Havre v Lorient

H 29.9% · D 24.9% · A 45.1%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 231 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

No upward rank movement.

Biggest faller

No downward rank movement.

Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.

  1. Correction · Matchday 9

    Leader Paris Saint Germain · 1,670.3 Elo · 685 results

    #1 Paris Saint Germain · #2 LOSC Lille · #3 Lens

  2. Matchday 9

    Leader Paris Saint Germain · 1,670.3 Elo · 685 results

    #1 Paris Saint Germain · #2 LOSC Lille · #3 Lens

  3. Matchday 9

    Leader Paris Saint Germain · 1,670.3 Elo · 684 results

    #1 Paris Saint Germain · #2 Lens · #3 LOSC Lille

  4. Matchday 9

    Leader Paris Saint Germain · 1,670.3 Elo · 683 results

    #1 Paris Saint Germain · #2 Lens · #3 LOSC Lille

  5. Correction · Matchday 8

    Leader Paris Saint Germain · 1,663.5 Elo · 682 results

    #1 Paris Saint Germain · #2 Lens · #3 LOSC Lille

  6. Matchday 8

    Leader Paris Saint Germain · 1,663.5 Elo · 682 results

    #1 Paris Saint Germain · #2 Lens · #3 LOSC Lille

  7. Correction · Matchday 8

    Leader Paris Saint Germain · 1,655.1 Elo · 681 results

    #1 Paris Saint Germain · #2 Lens · #3 LOSC Lille

  8. Matchday 8

    Leader Paris Saint Germain · 1,655.1 Elo · 681 results

    #1 Paris Saint Germain · #2 Lens · #3 LOSC Lille

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Rating ahead

Strasbourg: Volt has them 6 places higher than the table.

Rating ahead

Lens: Volt has them 5 places higher than the table.
  1. #1
    Paris Saint Germain

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #1 Form #1 Elo 1,670.3 +40.1 last 5 WWWWW
    72.7 GV
  2. #2
    LOSC Lille

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #2 Form #7 Elo 1,591.5 −2.0 last 5 LWDDW
    62.9 GV
  3. #3
    Lens

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #8 Form #6 Elo 1,576.0 +10.3 last 5 LWWWL
    60.8 GV
  4. #4
    Olympique Lyonnais

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #5 Form #9 Elo 1,570.5 +1.8 last 5 DWLWL
    60.0 GV
  5. #5
    Monaco

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #4 Form #11 Elo 1,568.6 −6.1 last 5 DWDLD
    59.7 GV
  6. #6
    Rennes

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #3 Form #12 Elo 1,553.6 −19.1 last 5 LWLWL
    57.7 GV
  7. #7
    Olympique Marseille

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #9 Form #4 Elo 1,552.3 +12.9 last 5 LLWWW
    57.5 GV
  8. #8
    Paris

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #6 Form #10 Elo 1,540.5 +0.3 last 5 DWLWL
    55.8 GV
  9. #9
    Lorient

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #10 Form #8 Elo 1,518.5 +8.6 last 5 DLWWD
    52.7 GV
  10. #10
    Strasbourg

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #16 Form #16 Elo 1,514.2 −42.2 last 5 DLLLL
    52.0 GV
  11. #11
    Toulouse

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #11 Form #5 Elo 1,509.4 +25.8 last 5 DWDWD
    51.4 GV
  12. #12
    Nice

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #7 Form #2 Elo 1,492.5 +45.8 last 5 WWLWW
    48.9 GV
  13. #13
    Le Mans

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #15 Form #13 Elo 1,480.2 −10.6 last 5 DWLLD
    47.2 GV
  14. #14
    Brest

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #13 Form #15 Elo 1,473.2 −11.8 last 5 LLWDL
    46.2 GV
  15. #15
    Auxerre

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #12 Form #3 Elo 1,473.2 +21.2 last 5 WWLWD
    46.1 GV
  16. #16
    Troyes

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #17 Form #17 Elo 1,455.4 −40.1 last 5 LLLLD
    43.6 GV
  17. #17
    Angers SCO

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #14 Form #14 Elo 1,431.5 −8.9 last 5 DWLLD
    40.3 GV
  18. #18
    Le Havre

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #18 Form #18 Elo 1,407.0 −38.1 last 5 LLLLL
    36.9 GV
Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 685 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

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