Croatia
1. HNL
Season probability engine / Power Paths
Every result
changes the route.
A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.
Projection unavailable
Power Paths could not run
A league fixture is currently live; Power Paths refreshes after it settles.
Power Race / archived checkpoints
How the ranking moved
Biggest riser
No upward rank movement.
Biggest faller
No downward rank movement.
Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.
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Correction · Matchday 12
Leader Dinamo Zagreb · 1,666.0 Elo · 415 results
#1 Dinamo Zagreb · #2 Hajduk Split · #3 Rijeka
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Matchday 12
Leader Dinamo Zagreb · 1,666.0 Elo · 415 results
#1 Dinamo Zagreb · #2 Hajduk Split · #3 Rijeka
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Correction · Matchday 11
Leader Dinamo Zagreb · 1,666.0 Elo · 414 results
#1 Dinamo Zagreb · #2 Hajduk Split · #3 Rijeka
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Matchday 11
Leader Dinamo Zagreb · 1,666.0 Elo · 414 results
#1 Dinamo Zagreb · #2 Hajduk Split · #3 Rijeka
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Correction · Matchday 11
Leader Dinamo Zagreb · 1,659.9 Elo · 413 results
#1 Dinamo Zagreb · #2 Hajduk Split · #3 Rijeka
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Matchday 11
Leader Dinamo Zagreb · 1,659.9 Elo · 413 results
#1 Dinamo Zagreb · #2 Hajduk Split · #3 Rijeka
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Correction · Matchday 11
Leader Dinamo Zagreb · 1,659.9 Elo · 412 results
#1 Dinamo Zagreb · #2 Hajduk Split · #3 Rijeka
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Matchday 11
Leader Dinamo Zagreb · 1,659.9 Elo · 412 results
#1 Dinamo Zagreb · #2 Hajduk Split · #3 Rijeka
GolVolt results-only model
Power, table and form
Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.
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#1
72.2 GV#2 22 pts#2 LWLWW
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#2
64.3 GV#1 23 pts#1 WLWWD
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#3
57.2 GV#5 17 pts#4 DWLWL
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#4
Varaždin
Volt and recent results tell different stories.
Table #3 Form #9 Elo 1,538.2 −18.4 last 5 DDWLL55.5 GV#3 18 pts#9 DDWLL -
#5
48.9 GV#6 16 pts#3 LWLDW
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#6
Osijek
Volt and recent results tell different stories.
Table #4 Form #10 Elo 1,475.1 −9.9 last 5 WDLDL46.4 GV#4 17 pts#10 WDLDL -
#7
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Volt, table and form broadly agree.
Table #8 Form #8 Elo 1,466.3 +0.9 last 5 DLLWD45.2 GV#8 11 pts#8 DLLWD -
#8
Rudeš
Volt and recent results tell different stories.
Table #9 Form #5 Elo 1,464.8 +4.3 last 5 LDWLW44.9 GV#9 10 pts#5 LDWLW -
#9
Slaven Koprivnica
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.
Table #7 Form #6 Elo 1,448.9 +10.8 last 5 DWLWL42.7 GV#7 13 pts#6 DWLWL -
#10
Gorica
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.
Table #10 Form #7 Elo 1,428.9 +7.6 last 5 DWLDD39.9 GV#10 7 pts#7 DWLDD
Method and limits
Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.
Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.
GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.
Coverage: 415 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.
Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.
Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.
Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.
Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.