Belgium

Pro League

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025

Power Paths 18 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 18.5%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

#1
Club Brugge Elo 1,696.5

Title 55.5%

Europe 99.4%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 1.6
#2
Gent Elo 1,576.0

Title 6.3%

Europe 87.4%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 3.2
#3
Union Saint-Gilloise Elo 1,685.7

Title 37.1%

Europe 98.3%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 1.9
#4
Sporting Charleroi Elo 1,545.1

Title 0.9%

Europe 52.3%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 4.9
#5
Anderlecht Elo 1,523.3

Title 0.1%

Europe 15.4%

Direct drop 0.1%

Exp. finish 7.0
#6
Genk Elo 1,553.8

Title 0.2%

Europe 26.8%

Direct drop 0.1%

Exp. finish 6.1
#7
Westerlo Elo 1,512.5

Title 0.0%

Europe 8.8%

Direct drop 0.3%

Exp. finish 7.9
#8
Lommel SK Elo 1,508.8

Title 0.0%

Europe 5.3%

Direct drop 0.7%

Exp. finish 8.8
#9
Standard Liège Elo 1,491.8

Title 0.0%

Europe 2.0%

Direct drop 2.2%

Exp. finish 10.3
#10
Zulte-Waregem Elo 1,477.0

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.9%

Direct drop 3.3%

Exp. finish 11.0
#11
Antwerp Elo 1,472.6

Title 0.0%

Europe 1.1%

Direct drop 3.5%

Exp. finish 11.1
#12
SK Beveren Elo 1,476.8

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.7%

Direct drop 5.4%

Exp. finish 11.6
#13
Sint-Truiden Elo 1,510.3

Title 0.0%

Europe 1.5%

Direct drop 2.5%

Exp. finish 10.5
#14
La Louvière Elo 1,420.9

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.0%

Direct drop 30.1%

Exp. finish 14.8
#15
OH Leuven Elo 1,422.3

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.0%

Direct drop 32.0%

Exp. finish 14.9
#16
Mechelen Elo 1,450.9

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.1%

Direct drop 18.9%

Exp. finish 13.7
#17
Cercle Brugge Elo 1,424.7

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.0%

Direct drop 45.0%

Exp. finish 15.6
#18
KV Kortrijk Elo 1,408.9

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.0%

Direct drop 55.8%

Exp. finish 16.1

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Sat 31 Oct
16:00

Mechelen v Genk

H 33.5% · D 18.3% · A 48.2%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
18:15

Standard Liège v KV Kortrijk

H 55.2% · D 17.6% · A 27.2%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
20:45

SK Beveren v Union Saint-Gilloise

H 22.8% · D 16.9% · A 60.3%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
20:45

Anderlecht v Westerlo

H 46.7% · D 18.4% · A 34.9%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
13:30

Cercle Brugge v Antwerp

H 39.8% · D 18.5% · A 41.7%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
16:00

Sint-Truiden v OH Leuven

H 55.8% · D 17.5% · A 26.7%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
18:30

Lommel SK v Gent

H 37.6% · D 18.5% · A 43.9%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
19:15

Sporting Charleroi v La Louvière

H 59.8% · D 16.9% · A 23.2%

H D A

Wed 4 Nov
20:30

KV Kortrijk v Mechelen

H 40.5% · D 18.5% · A 41.0%

H D A

Fri 6 Nov
20:45

Standard Liège v SK Beveren

H 47.2% · D 18.3% · A 34.4%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
16:00

Westerlo v Sporting Charleroi

H 41.6% · D 18.5% · A 39.9%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
18:15

OH Leuven v Mechelen

H 42.1% · D 18.5% · A 39.4%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 225 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

No upward rank movement.

Biggest faller

No downward rank movement.

Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.

Correction · Matchday 10
Fri 30 Oct

Leader Club Brugge · 1,696.5 Elo · 704 results

#1 Club Brugge · #2 Union Saint-Gilloise · #3 Gent
Matchday 10
Fri 30 Oct

Leader Club Brugge · 1,696.5 Elo · 704 results

#1 Club Brugge · #2 Union Saint-Gilloise · #3 Gent
Correction · Matchday 9
Sun 25 Oct

Leader Club Brugge · 1,689.6 Elo · 703 results

#1 Club Brugge · #2 Union Saint-Gilloise · #3 Gent
Correction · Matchday 9
Sun 25 Oct

Leader Club Brugge · 1,689.6 Elo · 703 results

#1 Club Brugge · #2 Union Saint-Gilloise · #3 Gent
Matchday 9
Sun 25 Oct

Leader Club Brugge · 1,689.6 Elo · 703 results

#1 Club Brugge · #2 Union Saint-Gilloise · #3 Gent
Matchday 9
Sun 25 Oct

Leader Club Brugge · 1,689.6 Elo · 702 results

#1 Club Brugge · #2 Union Saint-Gilloise · #3 Gent
Matchday 9
Sun 25 Oct

Leader Club Brugge · 1,689.6 Elo · 701 results

#1 Club Brugge · #2 Union Saint-Gilloise · #3 Gent
Matchday 9
Sun 25 Oct

Leader Club Brugge · 1,685.0 Elo · 700 results

#1 Club Brugge · #2 Union Saint-Gilloise · #3 Gent

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Rating ahead

Sint-Truiden: Volt has them 5 places higher than the table.

Results ahead

La Louvière: the table has them 3 places higher than Volt.

Rank Club GV Table Form Elo Last 5

#1
Club Brugge
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #1 Form #1 Elo 1,696.5 +30.4 last 5 WWWWW

75.6 GV

#1 27 pts

#1 WWWWW
1,696.5 +30.4
#2
Union Saint-Gilloise
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #3 Form #3 Elo 1,685.7 +18.9 last 5 WWWDW

74.4 GV

#3 23 pts

#3 WWWDW
1,685.7 +18.9
#3
Gent
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #2 Form #4 Elo 1,576.0 +46.3 last 5 WDWWW

60.8 GV

#2 25 pts

#4 WDWWW
1,576.0 +46.3
#4
Genk
Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

Table #6 Form #7 Elo 1,553.8 +6.3 last 5 DDLWW

57.7 GV

#6 15 pts

#7 DDLWW
1,553.8 +6.3
#5
Sporting Charleroi
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #4 Form #6 Elo 1,545.1 +3.2 last 5 LWWWL

56.5 GV

#4 21 pts

#6 LWWWL
1,545.1 +3.2
#6
Anderlecht
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #5 Form #5 Elo 1,523.3 +18.9 last 5 DWWWL

53.3 GV

#5 16 pts

#5 DWWWL
1,523.3 +18.9
#7
Westerlo
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #7 Form #2 Elo 1,512.5 +54.9 last 5 WWWWD

51.8 GV

#7 14 pts

#2 WWWWD
1,512.5 +54.9
#8
Sint-Truiden
Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

Table #13 Form #13 Elo 1,510.3 −37.0 last 5 WLLLL

51.5 GV

#13 8 pts

#13 WLLLL
1,510.3 −37.0
#9
Lommel SK
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #8 Form #11 Elo 1,508.8 −5.1 last 5 LLDWD

51.3 GV

#8 12 pts

#11 LLDWD
1,508.8 −5.1
#10
Standard Liège
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #9 Form #14 Elo 1,491.8 −30.7 last 5 WLLLL

48.8 GV

#9 11 pts

#14 WLLLL
1,491.8 −30.7
#11
Zulte-Waregem
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #10 Form #18 Elo 1,477.0 −59.3 last 5 LLLLL

46.7 GV

#10 11 pts

#18 LLLLL
1,477.0 −59.3
#12
SK Beveren
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #12 Form #8 Elo 1,476.8 +0.4 last 5 WWLLD

46.7 GV

#12 10 pts

#8 WWLLD
1,476.8 +0.4
#13
Antwerp
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #11 Form #15 Elo 1,472.6 −15.4 last 5 LLLLW

46.1 GV

#11 10 pts

#15 LLLLW
1,472.6 −15.4
#14
Mechelen
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #16 Form #12 Elo 1,450.9 −12.2 last 5 DLLDW

43.0 GV

#16 6 pts

#12 DLLDW
1,450.9 −12.2
#15
Cercle Brugge
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #17 Form #17 Elo 1,424.7 −31.7 last 5 LDLLL

39.3 GV

#17 3 pts

#17 LDLLL
1,424.7 −31.7
#16
OH Leuven
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #15 Form #9 Elo 1,422.3 +10.6 last 5 LDWDD

39.0 GV

#15 6 pts

#9 LDWDD
1,422.3 +10.6
#17
La Louvière
The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

Table #14 Form #10 Elo 1,420.9 +2.9 last 5 LWLLW

38.8 GV

#14 7 pts

#10 LWLLW
1,420.9 +2.9
#18
KV Kortrijk
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #18 Form #16 Elo 1,408.9 −26.4 last 5 LLLWL

37.2 GV

#18 3 pts

#16 LLLWL
1,408.9 −26.4

Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 704 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

Pro League

Every resultchanges the route.

Baseline probabilities

Lock the next result

How the ranking moved

Power, table and form

Every result
changes the route.