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2. Liga
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Poland

2. Liga

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025
Power Paths 18 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 24.8%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

Now Club Title Direct drop Expected finish
  1. #1
    Znicz Pruszków Elo 1,576.1
    Title 55.5%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 2.0
  2. #2
    GKS Tychy Elo 1,560.8
    Title 18.1%
    Direct drop 0.1%
    Exp. finish 3.5
  3. #3
    Górnik Łęczna Elo 1,557.7
    Title 13.7%
    Direct drop 0.1%
    Exp. finish 4.1
  4. #4
    Zawisza Bydgoszcz Elo 1,524.0
    Title 1.5%
    Direct drop 2.5%
    Exp. finish 7.7
  5. #5
    Sandecja Nowy Sącz Elo 1,552.0
    Title 2.8%
    Direct drop 1.1%
    Exp. finish 6.5
  6. #6
    Olimpia Grudziądz Elo 1,557.3
    Title 4.2%
    Direct drop 0.6%
    Exp. finish 5.8
  7. #7
    Hutnik Krakow Elo 1,515.1
    Title 0.8%
    Direct drop 4.0%
    Exp. finish 8.4
  8. #8
    NKP Podhale Elo 1,535.8
    Title 1.4%
    Direct drop 2.8%
    Exp. finish 7.9
  9. #9
    Legia Warszawa II Elo 1,505.3
    Title 0.3%
    Direct drop 8.7%
    Exp. finish 9.9
  10. #10
    Stal Stalowa Wola Elo 1,507.0
    Title 0.3%
    Direct drop 9.6%
    Exp. finish 10.1
  11. #11
    Falubaz Zielona Góra Elo 1,495.2
    Title 0.2%
    Direct drop 12.4%
    Exp. finish 10.6
  12. #12
    Rekord Bielsko-Biała Elo 1,492.1
    Title 0.1%
    Direct drop 13.8%
    Exp. finish 10.9
  13. #13
    Chojniczanka Chojnice Elo 1,542.3
    Title 1.1%
    Direct drop 4.0%
    Exp. finish 8.4
  14. #14
    Avia Swidnik Elo 1,484.1
    Title 0.1%
    Direct drop 19.8%
    Exp. finish 11.5
  15. #15
    Sokół Kleczew Elo 1,449.5
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 60.0%
    Exp. finish 14.5
  16. #16
    Śląsk Wrocław II Elo 1,455.1
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 79.7%
    Exp. finish 15.7
  17. #17
    Świt Skolwin Elo 1,437.1
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 83.8%
    Exp. finish 16.0
  18. #18
    Resovia Rzeszów Elo 1,419.8
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 96.9%
    Exp. finish 17.3

Competition-specific qualification rules are not configured for this league, so those probabilities are hidden.

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Chojniczanka Chojnice v Avia Swidnik

H 48.4% · D 24.1% · A 27.5%

H D A

Resovia Rzeszów v Górnik Łęczna

H 27.5% · D 24.1% · A 48.4%

H D A

Sokół Kleczew v Sandecja Nowy Sącz

H 31.0% · D 24.5% · A 44.5%

H D A

Znicz Pruszków v NKP Podhale

H 46.4% · D 24.3% · A 29.3%

H D A

Świt Skolwin v Śląsk Wrocław II

H 40.0% · D 24.8% · A 35.2%

H D A

Falubaz Zielona Góra v Stal Stalowa Wola

H 40.7% · D 24.7% · A 34.6%

H D A

Legia Warszawa II v Olimpia Grudziądz

H 36.3% · D 24.8% · A 38.9%

H D A

Rekord Bielsko-Biała v Chojniczanka Chojnice

H 36.5% · D 24.8% · A 38.7%

H D A

Avia Swidnik v Hutnik Krakow

H 38.6% · D 24.8% · A 36.6%

H D A

Zawisza Bydgoszcz v GKS Tychy

H 37.9% · D 24.8% · A 37.3%

H D A

Resovia Rzeszów v Świt Skolwin

H 40.1% · D 24.8% · A 35.2%

H D A

Znicz Pruszków v Sokół Kleczew

H 55.8% · D 22.8% · A 21.4%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 181 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

No upward rank movement.

Biggest faller

No downward rank movement.

Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.

  1. Correction · Matchday 14

    Leader Znicz Pruszków · 1,576.1 Elo · 736 results

    #1 Znicz Pruszków · #2 GKS Tychy · #3 Górnik Łęczna

  2. Matchday 14

    Leader Znicz Pruszków · 1,576.1 Elo · 736 results

    #1 Znicz Pruszków · #2 GKS Tychy · #3 Górnik Łęczna

  3. Matchday 14

    Leader Znicz Pruszków · 1,576.1 Elo · 735 results

    #1 Znicz Pruszków · #2 GKS Tychy · #3 Górnik Łęczna

  4. Matchday 14

    Leader Znicz Pruszków · 1,576.1 Elo · 734 results

    #1 Znicz Pruszków · #2 GKS Tychy · #3 Górnik Łęczna

  5. Matchday 14

    Leader Znicz Pruszków · 1,576.1 Elo · 733 results

    #1 Znicz Pruszków · #2 GKS Tychy · #3 Górnik Łęczna

  6. Matchday 14

    Leader Znicz Pruszków · 1,576.1 Elo · 732 results

    #1 Znicz Pruszków · #2 GKS Tychy · #3 Górnik Łęczna

  7. Matchday 14

    Leader Znicz Pruszków · 1,576.1 Elo · 730 results

    #1 Znicz Pruszków · #2 GKS Tychy · #3 Górnik Łęczna

  8. Correction · Matchday 14

    Leader Znicz Pruszków · 1,590.2 Elo · 729 results

    #1 Znicz Pruszków · #2 GKS Tychy · #3 Olimpia Grudziądz

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Rating ahead

Chojniczanka Chojnice: Volt has them 7 places higher than the table.

Results ahead

Zawisza Bydgoszcz: the table has them 4 places higher than Volt.
  1. #1
    Znicz Pruszków

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #1 Form #1 Elo 1,576.1 +23.0 last 5 WWWWL
    60.8 GV
  2. #2
    GKS Tychy

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #2 Form #2 Elo 1,560.8 +18.7 last 5 WWWDL
    58.7 GV
  3. #3
    Górnik Łęczna

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #3 Form #5 Elo 1,557.7 +18.2 last 5 WLLWW
    58.2 GV
  4. #4
    Olimpia Grudziądz

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #6 Form #4 Elo 1,557.3 +14.6 last 5 WWDWL
    58.2 GV
  5. #5
    Sandecja Nowy Sącz

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #5 Form #11 Elo 1,552.0 −8.5 last 5 LDWLW
    57.4 GV
  6. #6
    Chojniczanka Chojnice

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #13 Form #10 Elo 1,542.3 −4.2 last 5 WLDWL
    56.1 GV
  7. #7
    NKP Podhale

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #8 Form #8 Elo 1,535.8 +5.8 last 5 WDDDD
    55.1 GV
  8. #8
    Zawisza Bydgoszcz

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #4 Form #13 Elo 1,524.0 −7.5 last 5 LLLWW
    53.4 GV
  9. #9
    Hutnik Krakow

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #7 Form #14 Elo 1,515.1 −16.8 last 5 LWLLW
    52.2 GV
  10. #10
    Stal Stalowa Wola

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #10 Form #6 Elo 1,507.0 +9.0 last 5 LWWWL
    51.0 GV
  11. #11
    Legia Warszawa II

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #9 Form #3 Elo 1,505.3 +27.0 last 5 WDLWW
    50.8 GV
  12. #12
    Falubaz Zielona Góra

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #11 Form #12 Elo 1,495.2 +0.3 last 5 WLDLW
    49.3 GV
  13. #13
    Rekord Bielsko-Biała

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #12 Form #17 Elo 1,492.1 −28.0 last 5 LDLDL
    48.9 GV
  14. #14
    Avia Swidnik

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #14 Form #7 Elo 1,484.1 +8.6 last 5 DDWWL
    47.7 GV
  15. #15
    Śląsk Wrocław II

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #16 Form #18 Elo 1,455.1 −47.1 last 5 LDLLL
    43.6 GV
  16. #16
    Sokół Kleczew

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #15 Form #9 Elo 1,449.5 +10.2 last 5 LLDWW
    42.8 GV
  17. #17
    Świt Skolwin

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #17 Form #15 Elo 1,437.1 −1.9 last 5 WLDLD
    41.0 GV
  18. #18
    Resovia Rzeszów

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #18 Form #16 Elo 1,419.8 −10.2 last 5 DLDDL
    38.7 GV
Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 736 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

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