England

Championship

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025

Power Paths 24 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 26.1%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

#1
Middlesbrough Elo 1,577.4

Title 28.4%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 3.4
#2
Birmingham City Elo 1,556.4

Title 12.7%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 4.9
#3
Stoke City Elo 1,495.9

Title 1.8%

Direct drop 0.2%

Exp. finish 8.8
#4
Swansea City Elo 1,538.8

Title 7.6%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 6.1
#5
West Bromwich Albion Elo 1,524.5

Title 4.1%

Direct drop 0.1%

Exp. finish 7.4
#6
Southampton Elo 1,618.1

Title 32.4%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 3.2
#7
Wolverhampton Wanderers Elo 1,541.6

Title 5.3%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 6.8
#8
West Ham United Elo 1,539.1

Title 3.5%

Direct drop 0.1%

Exp. finish 8.0
#9
Sheffield United Elo 1,515.3

Title 1.2%

Direct drop 0.4%

Exp. finish 9.9
#10
Portsmouth Elo 1,513.0

Title 1.3%

Direct drop 0.2%

Exp. finish 9.8
#11
Queens Park Rangers Elo 1,495.6

Title 0.4%

Direct drop 0.8%

Exp. finish 11.4
#12
Norwich City Elo 1,511.6

Title 0.4%

Direct drop 1.2%

Exp. finish 11.9
#13
Millwall Elo 1,521.6

Title 0.5%

Direct drop 0.8%

Exp. finish 11.6
#14
Blackburn Rovers Elo 1,470.5

Title 0.0%

Direct drop 4.4%

Exp. finish 15.0
#15
Bristol City Elo 1,476.1

Title 0.1%

Direct drop 4.4%

Exp. finish 14.9
#16
Bolton Wanderers Elo 1,480.1

Title 0.1%

Direct drop 4.7%

Exp. finish 15.1
#17
Lincoln City Elo 1,465.8

Title 0.0%

Direct drop 10.9%

Exp. finish 17.0
#18
Cardiff City Elo 1,455.8

Title 0.0%

Direct drop 17.7%

Exp. finish 18.0
#19
Wrexham Elo 1,511.4

Title 0.1%

Direct drop 4.4%

Exp. finish 14.7
#20
Watford Elo 1,420.8

Title 0.0%

Direct drop 34.4%

Exp. finish 19.8
#21
Charlton Athletic Elo 1,418.8

Title 0.0%

Direct drop 40.3%

Exp. finish 20.2
#22
Burnley Elo 1,519.5

Title 0.1%

Direct drop 9.7%

Exp. finish 16.7
#23
Derby County Elo 1,424.1

Title 0.0%

Direct drop 72.1%

Exp. finish 22.0
#24
Preston North End Elo 1,380.8

Title 0.0%

Direct drop 93.3%

Exp. finish 23.4

Competition-specific qualification rules are not configured for this league, so those probabilities are hidden.

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Fri 6 Nov
21:00

Derby County v Bolton Wanderers

H 35.3% · D 26.0% · A 38.7%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
13:30

Wrexham v Wolverhampton Wanderers

H 38.0% · D 26.1% · A 35.9%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
13:30

Portsmouth v Stoke City

H 43.1% · D 25.8% · A 31.1%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
13:30

Bristol City v Norwich City

H 37.4% · D 26.1% · A 36.5%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
16:00

West Bromwich Albion v Millwall

H 41.6% · D 25.9% · A 32.5%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
16:00

Watford v Middlesbrough

H 25.4% · D 25.0% · A 49.6%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
16:00

Queens Park Rangers v Lincoln City

H 44.5% · D 25.7% · A 29.8%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
16:00

Preston North End v Southampton

H 18.7% · D 23.2% · A 58.1%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
16:00

Charlton Athletic v Sheffield United

H 31.1% · D 25.8% · A 43.1%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
16:00

Cardiff City v Burnley

H 34.5% · D 26.0% · A 39.5%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
16:00

Blackburn Rovers v West Ham United

H 34.0% · D 26.0% · A 40.0%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
16:00

Birmingham City v Swansea City

H 43.2% · D 25.8% · A 31.0%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 384 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

Wolverhampton Wanderers +2 places

Biggest faller

Bristol City -1 place

Swansea City -1 place

West Ham United -1 place

Matchday 14
Wed 4 Nov

Leader Southampton · 1,618.1 Elo · 1280 results

#1 Southampton · #2 Middlesbrough · #3 Birmingham City
Matchday 14
Wed 4 Nov

Leader Southampton · 1,618.1 Elo · 1279 results

#1 Southampton · #2 Middlesbrough · #3 Birmingham City
Matchday 14
Wed 4 Nov

Leader Southampton · 1,618.1 Elo · 1278 results

#1 Southampton · #2 Middlesbrough · #3 Birmingham City
Correction · Matchday 14
Tue 3 Nov

Leader Southampton · 1,618.1 Elo · 1277 results

#1 Southampton · #2 Middlesbrough · #3 Birmingham City
Matchday 14
Tue 3 Nov

Leader Southampton · 1,618.1 Elo · 1277 results

#1 Southampton · #2 Middlesbrough · #3 Birmingham City
Matchday 14
Tue 3 Nov

Leader Southampton · 1,619.7 Elo · 1275 results

#1 Southampton · #2 Middlesbrough · #3 Birmingham City
Matchday 14
Tue 3 Nov

Leader Southampton · 1,619.7 Elo · 1273 results

#1 Southampton · #2 Middlesbrough · #3 Swansea City
Matchday 14
Tue 3 Nov

Leader Southampton · 1,619.7 Elo · 1269 results

#1 Southampton · #2 Middlesbrough · #3 Swansea City

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Rating ahead

Burnley: Volt has them 13 places higher than the table.

Results ahead

Stoke City: the table has them 11 places higher than Volt.

Rank Club GV Table Form Elo Last 5

#1
Southampton
Volt ranks them higher than the table does.

Table #6 Form #3 Elo 1,618.1 +21.0 last 5 WDWWD

66.4 GV

#6 24 pts

#3 WDWWD
1,618.1 +21.0
#2
Middlesbrough
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #1 Form #6 Elo 1,577.4 +9.9 last 5 WDWWL

61.0 GV

#1 28 pts

#6 WDWWL
1,577.4 +9.9
#3
Birmingham City
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #2 Form #2 Elo 1,556.4 +32.3 last 5 WWLWW

58.0 GV

#2 26 pts

#2 WWLWW
1,556.4 +32.3
#4
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #7 Form #1 Elo 1,541.6 +36.6 last 5 WDWWW

56.0 GV

#7 24 pts

#1 WDWWW
1,541.6 +36.6
#5
West Ham United
Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

Table #8 Form #11 Elo 1,539.1 +0.3 last 5 WWLLD

55.6 GV

#8 22 pts

#11 WWLLD
1,539.1 +0.3
#6
Swansea City
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #4 Form #15 Elo 1,538.8 −19.3 last 5 WLLWL

55.6 GV

#4 26 pts

#15 WLLWL
1,538.8 −19.3
#7
West Bromwich Albion
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #5 Form #4 Elo 1,524.5 +35.6 last 5 WWDWD

53.5 GV

#5 25 pts

#4 WWDWD
1,524.5 +35.6
#8
Millwall
Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

Table #13 Form #18 Elo 1,521.6 −26.5 last 5 LDLWL

53.1 GV

#13 18 pts

#18 LDLWL
1,521.6 −26.5
#9
Burnley
Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

Table #22 Form #21 Elo 1,519.5 −32.0 last 5 DLLDD

52.8 GV

#22 10 pts

#21 DLLDD
1,519.5 −32.0
#10
Sheffield United
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #9 Form #8 Elo 1,515.3 +15.2 last 5 LWDWW

52.2 GV

#9 22 pts

#8 LWDWW
1,515.3 +15.2
#11
Portsmouth
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #10 Form #5 Elo 1,513.0 +38.4 last 5 WDWDW

51.9 GV

#10 22 pts

#5 WDWDW
1,513.0 +38.4
#12
Norwich City
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #12 Form #9 Elo 1,511.6 +13.8 last 5 LLWWW

51.7 GV

#12 18 pts

#9 LLWWW
1,511.6 +13.8
#13
Wrexham
Volt ranks them higher than the table does.

Table #19 Form #14 Elo 1,511.4 −10.8 last 5 LWLLW

51.6 GV

#19 14 pts

#14 LWLLW
1,511.4 −10.8
#14
Stoke City
The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

Table #3 Form #7 Elo 1,495.9 +20.4 last 5 LWDWW

49.4 GV

#3 26 pts

#7 LWDWW
1,495.9 +20.4
#15
Queens Park Rangers
The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

Table #11 Form #12 Elo 1,495.6 +8.7 last 5 WLWLD

49.4 GV

#11 21 pts

#12 WLWLD
1,495.6 +8.7
#16
Bolton Wanderers
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #16 Form #13 Elo 1,480.1 +4.9 last 5 WDLLW

47.1 GV

#16 17 pts

#13 WDLLW
1,480.1 +4.9
#17
Bristol City
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #15 Form #19 Elo 1,476.1 −19.9 last 5 LLDWL

46.6 GV

#15 18 pts

#19 LLDWL
1,476.1 −19.9
#18
Blackburn Rovers
The table ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #14 Form #16 Elo 1,470.5 −6.7 last 5 WLWLL

45.8 GV

#14 18 pts

#16 WLWLL
1,470.5 −6.7
#19
Lincoln City
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #17 Form #20 Elo 1,465.8 −21.1 last 5 LDWLL

45.1 GV

#17 15 pts

#20 LDWLL
1,465.8 −21.1
#20
Cardiff City
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #18 Form #10 Elo 1,455.8 +19.8 last 5 WDWLD

43.7 GV

#18 14 pts

#10 WDWLD
1,455.8 +19.8
#21
Derby County
Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

Table #23 Form #24 Elo 1,424.1 −43.0 last 5 LLDLL

39.2 GV

#23 7 pts

#24 LLDLL
1,424.1 −43.0
#22
Watford
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #20 Form #17 Elo 1,420.8 −2.2 last 5 LWLLW

38.8 GV

#20 14 pts

#17 LWLLW
1,420.8 −2.2
#23
Charlton Athletic
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #21 Form #22 Elo 1,418.8 −38.9 last 5 DLLLL

38.5 GV

#21 14 pts

#22 DLLLL
1,418.8 −38.9
#24
Preston North End
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #24 Form #23 Elo 1,380.8 −31.0 last 5 LLDLL

33.5 GV

#24 5 pts

#23 LLDLL
1,380.8 −31.0

Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 1280 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

Championship

Every resultchanges the route.

Baseline probabilities

Lock the next result

How the ranking moved

Power, table and form

Every result
changes the route.