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2. Bundesliga
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Germany

2. Bundesliga

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025
Power Paths 18 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 27.8%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

Now Club Title Direct drop Expected finish
  1. #1
    Hertha BSC Elo 1,592.4
    Title 74.6%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 1.4
  2. #2
    Nürnberg Elo 1,559.5
    Title 13.2%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 3.2
  3. #3
    VfL Wolfsburg Elo 1,547.4
    Title 7.1%
    Direct drop 0.1%
    Exp. finish 4.1
  4. #4
    Kaiserslautern Elo 1,529.9
    Title 2.7%
    Direct drop 0.3%
    Exp. finish 5.2
  5. #5
    Magdeburg Elo 1,515.2
    Title 1.4%
    Direct drop 0.5%
    Exp. finish 6.2
  6. #6
    FC Heidenheim Elo 1,500.4
    Title 0.3%
    Direct drop 2.1%
    Exp. finish 8.1
  7. #7
    DSC Arminia Bielefeld Elo 1,492.6
    Title 0.2%
    Direct drop 3.3%
    Exp. finish 8.9
  8. #8
    St. Pauli Elo 1,498.2
    Title 0.2%
    Direct drop 4.6%
    Exp. finish 9.7
  9. #9
    SpVgg Greuther Fürth Elo 1,458.2
    Title 0.1%
    Direct drop 13.6%
    Exp. finish 11.9
  10. #10
    Osnabrück Elo 1,477.0
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 12.8%
    Exp. finish 11.6
  11. #11
    VfL Bochum 1848 Elo 1,482.8
    Title 0.1%
    Direct drop 10.9%
    Exp. finish 11.3
  12. #12
    Hannover 96 Elo 1,517.4
    Title 0.1%
    Direct drop 5.4%
    Exp. finish 9.8
  13. #13
    Karlsruher SC Elo 1,463.3
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 16.6%
    Exp. finish 12.4
  14. #14
    Energie Cottbus Elo 1,481.6
    Title 0.1%
    Direct drop 13.9%
    Exp. finish 11.8
  15. #15
    Eintracht Braunschweig Elo 1,438.5
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 28.6%
    Exp. finish 13.8
  16. #16
    Darmstadt 98 Elo 1,468.1
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 26.9%
    Exp. finish 13.5
  17. #17
    Holstein Kiel Elo 1,461.8
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 28.5%
    Exp. finish 13.8
  18. #18
    Dynamo Dresden Elo 1,457.6
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 31.9%
    Exp. finish 14.1

Competition-specific qualification rules are not configured for this league, so those probabilities are hidden.

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Eintracht Braunschweig v Energie Cottbus

H 35.8% · D 27.8% · A 36.4%

H D A

Dynamo Dresden v SpVgg Greuther Fürth

H 40.3% · D 27.6% · A 32.1%

H D A

Osnabrück v Kaiserslautern

H 34.8% · D 27.8% · A 37.5%

H D A

Holstein Kiel v DSC Arminia Bielefeld

H 37.1% · D 27.8% · A 35.2%

H D A

Nürnberg v Darmstadt 98

H 50.1% · D 26.4% · A 23.5%

H D A

Hertha BSC v VfL Wolfsburg

H 45.1% · D 27.2% · A 27.7%

H D A

Magdeburg v St. Pauli

H 42.1% · D 27.5% · A 30.4%

H D A

VfL Bochum 1848 v Karlsruher SC

H 42.4% · D 27.5% · A 30.1%

H D A

FC Heidenheim v Hannover 96

H 38.5% · D 27.7% · A 33.7%

H D A

DSC Arminia Bielefeld v Magdeburg

H 37.9% · D 27.8% · A 34.3%

H D A

Darmstadt 98 v FC Heidenheim

H 36.9% · D 27.8% · A 35.3%

H D A

Nürnberg v Eintracht Braunschweig

H 53.2% · D 25.7% · A 21.1%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 216 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

No upward rank movement.

Biggest faller

No downward rank movement.

Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.

  1. Correction · Matchday 10

    Leader Hertha BSC · 1,592.4 Elo · 702 results

    #1 Hertha BSC · #2 Nürnberg · #3 VfL Wolfsburg

  2. Matchday 10

    Leader Hertha BSC · 1,592.4 Elo · 702 results

    #1 Hertha BSC · #2 Nürnberg · #3 VfL Wolfsburg

  3. Matchday 10

    Leader Hertha BSC · 1,592.4 Elo · 700 results

    #1 Hertha BSC · #2 VfL Wolfsburg · #3 Nürnberg

  4. Correction · Matchday 10

    Leader Hertha BSC · 1,592.4 Elo · 699 results

    #1 Hertha BSC · #2 VfL Wolfsburg · #3 Nürnberg

  5. Matchday 10

    Leader Hertha BSC · 1,592.4 Elo · 699 results

    #1 Hertha BSC · #2 VfL Wolfsburg · #3 Nürnberg

  6. Matchday 10

    Leader Hertha BSC · 1,592.4 Elo · 698 results

    #1 Hertha BSC · #2 VfL Wolfsburg · #3 Nürnberg

  7. Matchday 10

    Leader Hertha BSC · 1,578.3 Elo · 696 results

    #1 Hertha BSC · #2 VfL Wolfsburg · #3 Nürnberg

  8. Correction · Matchday 10

    Leader Hertha BSC · 1,578.3 Elo · 695 results

    #1 Hertha BSC · #2 Nürnberg · #3 Kaiserslautern

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Rating ahead

Hannover 96: Volt has them 7 places higher than the table.

Results ahead

SpVgg Greuther Fürth: the table has them 7 places higher than Volt.
  1. #1
    Hertha BSC

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #1 Form #1 Elo 1,592.4 +33.0 last 5 WWDWW
    63.0 GV
  2. #2
    Nürnberg

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #2 Form #6 Elo 1,559.5 +6.4 last 5 WDDLW
    58.5 GV
  3. #3
    VfL Wolfsburg

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #3 Form #2 Elo 1,547.4 +33.2 last 5 WDWDW
    56.8 GV
  4. #4
    Kaiserslautern

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #4 Form #4 Elo 1,529.9 +15.5 last 5 WDWWL
    54.3 GV
  5. #5
    Hannover 96

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #12 Form #8 Elo 1,517.4 −14.0 last 5 WLDLW
    52.5 GV
  6. #6
    Magdeburg

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #5 Form #5 Elo 1,515.2 +12.7 last 5 DWLWD
    52.2 GV
  7. #7
    FC Heidenheim

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #6 Form #17 Elo 1,500.4 −24.8 last 5 DDLDL
    50.1 GV
  8. #8
    St. Pauli

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #8 Form #9 Elo 1,498.2 −0.1 last 5 DWDDL
    49.7 GV
  9. #9
    DSC Arminia Bielefeld

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #7 Form #3 Elo 1,492.6 +24.4 last 5 DWWLW
    48.9 GV
  10. #10
    VfL Bochum 1848

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #11 Form #15 Elo 1,482.8 −16.7 last 5 LLLDW
    47.5 GV
  11. #11
    Energie Cottbus

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #14 Form #18 Elo 1,481.6 −22.7 last 5 DLDDL
    47.4 GV
  12. #12
    Osnabrück

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #10 Form #13 Elo 1,477.0 −7.6 last 5 DDLWL
    46.7 GV
  13. #13
    Darmstadt 98

    Volt ranks them higher than the table does.

    Table #16 Form #14 Elo 1,468.1 −13.8 last 5 LWLDD
    45.4 GV
  14. #14
    Karlsruher SC

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #13 Form #11 Elo 1,463.3 −5.5 last 5 LLWLW
    44.7 GV
  15. #15
    Holstein Kiel

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #17 Form #12 Elo 1,461.8 −4.6 last 5 DLDWL
    44.5 GV
  16. #16
    SpVgg Greuther Fürth

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #9 Form #7 Elo 1,458.2 +3.0 last 5 DLWLW
    44.0 GV
  17. #17
    Dynamo Dresden

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #18 Form #16 Elo 1,457.6 −14.8 last 5 LDWLL
    43.9 GV
  18. #18
    Eintracht Braunschweig

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #15 Form #10 Elo 1,438.5 −3.6 last 5 LWLWL
    41.2 GV
Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 702 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

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