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Bundesliga
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Bundesliga

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025
Power Paths 18 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 22.2%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

Now Club Title Europe Direct drop Expected finish
  1. #1
    FC Bayern München Elo 1,719.8
    Title 73.5%
    Europe 99.9%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 1.4
  2. #2
    Borussia Dortmund Elo 1,642.2
    Title 20.9%
    Europe 98.0%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 2.4
  3. #3
    SC Freiburg Elo 1,542.2
    Title 1.3%
    Europe 70.0%
    Direct drop 0.1%
    Exp. finish 5.6
  4. #4
    RB Leipzig Elo 1,579.4
    Title 2.7%
    Europe 81.8%
    Direct drop 0.1%
    Exp. finish 4.6
  5. #5
    Werder Bremen Elo 1,493.6
    Title 0.1%
    Europe 37.3%
    Direct drop 1.1%
    Exp. finish 8.1
  6. #6
    Bayer 04 Leverkusen Elo 1,564.8
    Title 1.0%
    Europe 63.0%
    Direct drop 0.2%
    Exp. finish 6.1
  7. #7
    Elversberg Elo 1,514.4
    Title 0.2%
    Europe 35.7%
    Direct drop 1.4%
    Exp. finish 8.3
  8. #8
    Eintracht Frankfurt Elo 1,501.7
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 17.8%
    Direct drop 4.5%
    Exp. finish 10.2
  9. #9
    FSV Mainz 05 Elo 1,490.0
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 11.6%
    Direct drop 7.8%
    Exp. finish 11.3
  10. #10
    FC Augsburg Elo 1,487.4
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 11.2%
    Direct drop 9.0%
    Exp. finish 11.4
  11. #11
    VfB Stuttgart Elo 1,551.6
    Title 0.2%
    Europe 36.8%
    Direct drop 1.6%
    Exp. finish 8.2
  12. #12
    TSG Hoffenheim Elo 1,510.4
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 14.2%
    Direct drop 5.7%
    Exp. finish 10.7
  13. #13
    FC Köln Elo 1,443.7
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 2.3%
    Direct drop 26.7%
    Exp. finish 14.1
  14. #14
    Paderborn Elo 1,492.7
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 9.7%
    Direct drop 9.4%
    Exp. finish 11.6
  15. #15
    Hamburger SV Elo 1,460.1
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 4.9%
    Direct drop 18.6%
    Exp. finish 13.0
  16. #16
    FC Union Berlin Elo 1,454.0
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 2.3%
    Direct drop 30.8%
    Exp. finish 14.3
  17. #17
    Schalke 04 Elo 1,473.9
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 3.2%
    Direct drop 23.5%
    Exp. finish 13.7
  18. #18
    Borussia Mönchengladbach Elo 1,436.8
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 0.4%
    Direct drop 59.5%
    Exp. finish 16.2

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Hamburger SV v Borussia Mönchengladbach

H 46.1% · D 21.9% · A 32.0%

H D A

Paderborn v Eintracht Frankfurt

H 42.4% · D 22.2% · A 35.5%

H D A

FSV Mainz 05 v FC Bayern München

H 20.1% · D 19.9% · A 60.0%

H D A

RB Leipzig v FC Augsburg

H 53.8% · D 21.0% · A 25.2%

H D A

Borussia Dortmund v Elversberg

H 57.7% · D 20.3% · A 22.0%

H D A

VfB Stuttgart v Werder Bremen

H 50.0% · D 21.6% · A 28.4%

H D A

FC Köln v Bayer 04 Leverkusen

H 30.2% · D 21.8% · A 48.1%

H D A

SC Freiburg v FC Union Berlin

H 53.4% · D 21.1% · A 25.5%

H D A

TSG Hoffenheim v Schalke 04

H 47.6% · D 21.8% · A 30.6%

H D A

FC Bayern München v FC Köln

H 71.8% · D 16.5% · A 11.6%

H D A

Elversberg v SC Freiburg

H 40.3% · D 22.2% · A 37.5%

H D A

Borussia Mönchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund

H 22.2% · D 20.4% · A 57.4%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 234 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

No upward rank movement.

Biggest faller

No downward rank movement.

Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.

  1. Correction · Matchday 8

    Leader FC Bayern München · 1,719.8 Elo · 683 results

    #1 FC Bayern München · #2 Borussia Dortmund · #3 RB Leipzig

  2. Matchday 8

    Leader FC Bayern München · 1,719.8 Elo · 683 results

    #1 FC Bayern München · #2 Borussia Dortmund · #3 RB Leipzig

  3. Matchday 8

    Leader FC Bayern München · 1,719.8 Elo · 682 results

    #1 FC Bayern München · #2 Borussia Dortmund · #3 RB Leipzig

  4. Correction · Matchday 8

    Leader FC Bayern München · 1,719.8 Elo · 681 results

    #1 FC Bayern München · #2 Borussia Dortmund · #3 RB Leipzig

  5. Matchday 8

    Leader FC Bayern München · 1,719.8 Elo · 681 results

    #1 FC Bayern München · #2 Borussia Dortmund · #3 RB Leipzig

  6. Matchday 8

    Leader FC Bayern München · 1,723.3 Elo · 680 results

    #1 FC Bayern München · #2 Borussia Dortmund · #3 RB Leipzig

  7. Matchday 8

    Leader FC Bayern München · 1,723.3 Elo · 676 results

    #1 FC Bayern München · #2 Borussia Dortmund · #3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen

  8. Correction · Matchday 8

    Leader FC Bayern München · 1,723.3 Elo · 675 results

    #1 FC Bayern München · #2 Borussia Dortmund · #3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Rating ahead

VfB Stuttgart: Volt has them 6 places higher than the table.

Results ahead

Werder Bremen: the table has them 5 places higher than Volt.
  1. #1
    FC Bayern München

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #1 Form #1 Elo 1,719.8 +13.0 last 5 WDWWD
    78.0 GV
  2. #2
    Borussia Dortmund

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #2 Form #4 Elo 1,642.2 +8.1 last 5 WDDWD
    69.4 GV
  3. #3
    RB Leipzig

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #4 Form #3 Elo 1,579.4 +15.3 last 5 LWLWW
    61.2 GV
  4. #4
    Bayer 04 Leverkusen

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #6 Form #6 Elo 1,564.8 −3.3 last 5 WWWLL
    59.2 GV
  5. #5
    VfB Stuttgart

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #11 Form #11 Elo 1,551.6 −7.8 last 5 LWLLW
    57.4 GV
  6. #6
    SC Freiburg

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #3 Form #8 Elo 1,542.2 +2.5 last 5 DWLLW
    56.1 GV
  7. #7
    Elversberg

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #7 Form #9 Elo 1,514.4 −0.3 last 5 DLWLW
    52.1 GV
  8. #8
    TSG Hoffenheim

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #12 Form #12 Elo 1,510.4 −12.6 last 5 LLWWL
    51.5 GV
  9. #9
    Eintracht Frankfurt

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #8 Form #10 Elo 1,501.7 +0.6 last 5 DLWLW
    50.2 GV
  10. #10
    Werder Bremen

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #5 Form #2 Elo 1,493.6 +40.4 last 5 WDDWW
    49.1 GV
  11. #11
    Paderborn

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #14 Form #7 Elo 1,492.7 +9.5 last 5 WLDWD
    48.9 GV
  12. #12
    FSV Mainz 05

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #9 Form #13 Elo 1,490.0 −13.4 last 5 WLWLL
    48.6 GV
  13. #13
    FC Augsburg

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #10 Form #17 Elo 1,487.4 −27.8 last 5 LDLDL
    48.2 GV
  14. #14
    Schalke 04

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #17 Form #18 Elo 1,473.9 −30.6 last 5 DLLDL
    46.3 GV
  15. #15
    Hamburger SV

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #15 Form #5 Elo 1,460.1 +14.3 last 5 WWWLL
    44.3 GV
  16. #16
    FC Union Berlin

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #16 Form #14 Elo 1,454.0 +11.1 last 5 LWDDD
    43.4 GV
  17. #17
    FC Köln

    The table ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #13 Form #15 Elo 1,443.7 −6.3 last 5 LWLDD
    42.0 GV
  18. #18
    Borussia Mönchengladbach

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #18 Form #16 Elo 1,436.8 −12.7 last 5 LLLWD
    41.0 GV
Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 683 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

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