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Premier League

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025
Power Paths 20 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 27.8%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

Now Club Title Europe Direct drop Expected finish
  1. #1
    Arsenal Elo 1,678.3
    Title 67.2%
    Europe 99.6%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 1.5
  2. #2
    Manchester City Elo 1,646.4
    Title 24.8%
    Europe 96.9%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 2.3
  3. #3
    Brighton & Hove Albion Elo 1,582.4
    Title 5.9%
    Europe 83.3%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 3.9
  4. #4
    Chelsea Elo 1,533.3
    Title 0.5%
    Europe 40.0%
    Direct drop 0.7%
    Exp. finish 7.0
  5. #5
    Liverpool Elo 1,567.9
    Title 0.7%
    Europe 52.5%
    Direct drop 0.2%
    Exp. finish 6.0
  6. #6
    Brentford Elo 1,541.7
    Title 0.3%
    Europe 30.0%
    Direct drop 1.1%
    Exp. finish 7.8
  7. #7
    Everton Elo 1,506.6
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 12.5%
    Direct drop 4.6%
    Exp. finish 10.3
  8. #8
    AFC Bournemouth Elo 1,554.3
    Title 0.2%
    Europe 27.4%
    Direct drop 1.3%
    Exp. finish 8.1
  9. #9
    Tottenham Hotspur Elo 1,472.3
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 3.7%
    Direct drop 14.4%
    Exp. finish 12.9
  10. #10
    Aston Villa Elo 1,544.5
    Title 0.1%
    Europe 22.4%
    Direct drop 1.9%
    Exp. finish 8.8
  11. #11
    Hull City Elo 1,499.9
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 6.3%
    Direct drop 9.7%
    Exp. finish 11.9
  12. #12
    Leeds United Elo 1,512.5
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 10.5%
    Direct drop 5.7%
    Exp. finish 10.7
  13. #13
    Newcastle United Elo 1,491.4
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 4.5%
    Direct drop 12.3%
    Exp. finish 12.5
  14. #14
    Ipswich Town Elo 1,424.9
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 0.5%
    Direct drop 39.0%
    Exp. finish 15.8
  15. #15
    Fulham Elo 1,490.8
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 2.7%
    Direct drop 19.4%
    Exp. finish 13.7
  16. #16
    Coventry City Elo 1,475.5
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 2.0%
    Direct drop 25.6%
    Exp. finish 14.3
  17. #17
    Manchester United Elo 1,527.1
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 4.4%
    Direct drop 13.4%
    Exp. finish 12.6
  18. #18
    Crystal Palace Elo 1,443.9
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 0.3%
    Direct drop 56.0%
    Exp. finish 17.0
  19. #19
    Nottingham Forest Elo 1,469.6
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 0.4%
    Direct drop 42.7%
    Exp. finish 16.1
  20. #20
    Sunderland Elo 1,460.0
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 0.2%
    Direct drop 52.0%
    Exp. finish 16.8

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Everton v Coventry City

H 43.6% · D 27.4% · A 29.0%

H D A

Leeds United v Tottenham Hotspur

H 44.6% · D 27.3% · A 28.1%

H D A

Fulham v Newcastle United

H 40.3% · D 27.6% · A 32.1%

H D A

Arsenal v Hull City

H 59.0% · D 24.2% · A 16.8%

H D A

Nottingham Forest v Manchester City

H 23.1% · D 26.3% · A 50.7%

H D A

Sunderland v Chelsea

H 32.7% · D 27.7% · A 39.6%

H D A

Ipswich Town v AFC Bournemouth

H 27.3% · D 27.1% · A 45.6%

H D A

Crystal Palace v Liverpool

H 27.8% · D 27.2% · A 45.0%

H D A

Brighton & Hove Albion v Brentford

H 44.7% · D 27.2% · A 28.1%

H D A

Manchester United v Aston Villa

H 38.5% · D 27.7% · A 33.8%

H D A

Manchester City v Fulham

H 56.7% · D 24.9% · A 18.4%

H D A

Tottenham Hotspur v Ipswich Town

H 45.4% · D 27.2% · A 27.4%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 290 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

No upward rank movement.

Biggest faller

No downward rank movement.

Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.

  1. Correction · Matchday 9

    Leader Arsenal · 1,678.3 Elo · 850 results

    #1 Arsenal · #2 Manchester City · #3 Brighton & Hove Albion

  2. Matchday 9

    Leader Arsenal · 1,678.3 Elo · 850 results

    #1 Arsenal · #2 Manchester City · #3 Brighton & Hove Albion

  3. Correction · Matchday 9

    Leader Arsenal · 1,678.3 Elo · 849 results

    #1 Arsenal · #2 Manchester City · #3 Brighton & Hove Albion

  4. Matchday 9

    Leader Arsenal · 1,678.3 Elo · 849 results

    #1 Arsenal · #2 Manchester City · #3 Brighton & Hove Albion

  5. Correction · Matchday 9

    Leader Arsenal · 1,669.8 Elo · 848 results

    #1 Arsenal · #2 Manchester City · #3 Brighton & Hove Albion

  6. Matchday 9

    Leader Arsenal · 1,669.8 Elo · 848 results

    #1 Arsenal · #2 Manchester City · #3 Brighton & Hove Albion

  7. Matchday 9

    Leader Arsenal · 1,669.8 Elo · 847 results

    #1 Arsenal · #2 Manchester City · #3 Brighton & Hove Albion

  8. Matchday 9

    Leader Arsenal · 1,669.8 Elo · 846 results

    #1 Arsenal · #2 Manchester City · #3 Brighton & Hove Albion

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Rating ahead

Manchester United: Volt has them 8 places higher than the table.

Results ahead

Tottenham Hotspur: the table has them 7 places higher than Volt.
  1. #1
    Arsenal

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #1 Form #2 Elo 1,678.3 +9.1 last 5 LWWWW
    73.6 GV
  2. #2
    Manchester City

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #2 Form #5 Elo 1,646.4 −5.2 last 5 WWWLL
    69.9 GV
  3. #3
    Brighton & Hove Albion

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #3 Form #1 Elo 1,582.4 +40.7 last 5 WWWLW
    61.6 GV
  4. #4
    Liverpool

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #5 Form #9 Elo 1,567.9 +12.9 last 5 WLWWL
    59.6 GV
  5. #5
    AFC Bournemouth

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #8 Form #8 Elo 1,554.3 +11.6 last 5 LLWWW
    57.8 GV
  6. #6
    Aston Villa

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #10 Form #3 Elo 1,544.5 +28.6 last 5 WDWWD
    56.4 GV
  7. #7
    Brentford

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #6 Form #10 Elo 1,541.7 +11.3 last 5 WDLDW
    56.0 GV
  8. #8
    Chelsea

    The table ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #4 Form #6 Elo 1,533.3 +10.1 last 5 LWWLW
    54.8 GV
  9. #9
    Manchester United

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #17 Form #18 Elo 1,527.1 −33.7 last 5 DDDLL
    53.9 GV
  10. #10
    Leeds United

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #12 Form #17 Elo 1,512.5 −19.5 last 5 DLDDL
    51.8 GV
  11. #11
    Everton

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #7 Form #12 Elo 1,506.6 −0.3 last 5 WDLLW
    50.9 GV
  12. #12
    Hull City

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #11 Form #16 Elo 1,499.9 −24.5 last 5 LDLDD
    50.0 GV
  13. #13
    Newcastle United

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #13 Form #13 Elo 1,491.4 −13.1 last 5 WLLWL
    48.8 GV
  14. #14
    Fulham

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #15 Form #11 Elo 1,490.8 +14.7 last 5 DLWWD
    48.7 GV
  15. #15
    Coventry City

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #16 Form #7 Elo 1,475.5 +13.4 last 5 WWLLW
    46.5 GV
  16. #16
    Tottenham Hotspur

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #9 Form #4 Elo 1,472.3 +36.5 last 5 LDWWW
    46.0 GV
  17. #17
    Nottingham Forest

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #19 Form #19 Elo 1,469.6 −40.7 last 5 LLLDL
    45.6 GV
  18. #18
    Sunderland

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #20 Form #20 Elo 1,460.0 −38.2 last 5 LLLDL
    44.3 GV
  19. #19
    Crystal Palace

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #18 Form #15 Elo 1,443.9 −18.6 last 5 DWLLL
    42.0 GV
  20. #20
    Ipswich Town

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #14 Form #14 Elo 1,424.9 +4.8 last 5 LWLDD
    39.4 GV
Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 850 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

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