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Eredivisie
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Netherlands

Eredivisie

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025
Power Paths 18 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 27.3%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

Now Club Title Europe Direct drop Expected finish
  1. #1
    Feyenoord Elo 1,640.8
    Title 29.2%
    Europe 77.4%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 2.5
  2. #2
    Ajax Elo 1,631.6
    Title 17.8%
    Europe 63.7%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 3.1
  3. #3
    PSV Elo 1,682.5
    Title 39.2%
    Europe 83.4%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 2.2
  4. #4
    FC Twente Elo 1,613.5
    Title 11.8%
    Europe 52.9%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 3.5
  5. #5
    AZ Alkmaar Elo 1,560.3
    Title 1.4%
    Europe 12.9%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 5.7
  6. #6
    Fortuna Sittard Elo 1,504.3
    Title 0.2%
    Europe 3.5%
    Direct drop 0.2%
    Exp. finish 7.6
  7. #7
    SC Heerenveen Elo 1,539.6
    Title 0.3%
    Europe 4.2%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 7.2
  8. #8
    FC Groningen Elo 1,506.9
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 0.8%
    Direct drop 0.8%
    Exp. finish 9.5
  9. #9
    SC Cambuur Elo 1,505.8
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 0.5%
    Direct drop 1.2%
    Exp. finish 10.0
  10. #10
    Go Ahead Eagles Elo 1,481.3
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 0.2%
    Direct drop 3.4%
    Exp. finish 11.4
  11. #11
    Sparta Rotterdam Elo 1,462.3
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 0.0%
    Direct drop 9.1%
    Exp. finish 12.8
  12. #12
    FC Utrecht Elo 1,524.0
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 0.3%
    Direct drop 2.4%
    Exp. finish 10.7
  13. #13
    NEC Nijmegen Elo 1,524.0
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 0.1%
    Direct drop 3.4%
    Exp. finish 11.2
  14. #14
    PEC Zwolle Elo 1,448.4
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 0.0%
    Direct drop 15.4%
    Exp. finish 13.6
  15. #15
    Excelsior Elo 1,457.4
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 0.0%
    Direct drop 12.7%
    Exp. finish 13.2
  16. #16
    Telstar Elo 1,465.1
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 0.0%
    Direct drop 15.8%
    Exp. finish 13.7
  17. #17
    ADO Den Haag Elo 1,449.3
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 0.0%
    Direct drop 40.9%
    Exp. finish 15.3
  18. #18
    Willem II Elo 1,359.7
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 0.0%
    Direct drop 94.8%
    Exp. finish 17.7

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Willem II v PEC Zwolle

H 31.4% · D 27.1% · A 41.5%

H D A

Fortuna Sittard v Telstar

H 44.8% · D 26.8% · A 28.4%

H D A

ADO Den Haag v Sparta Rotterdam

H 39.2% · D 27.2% · A 33.6%

H D A

Excelsior v Go Ahead Eagles

H 38.1% · D 27.3% · A 34.7%

H D A

SC Heerenveen v Feyenoord

H 30.1% · D 27.0% · A 42.9%

H D A

FC Twente v Ajax

H 38.7% · D 27.2% · A 34.1%

H D A

AZ Alkmaar v FC Groningen

H 46.4% · D 26.6% · A 27.1%

H D A

SC Cambuur v PSV

H 23.2% · D 25.8% · A 51.0%

H D A

FC Utrecht v NEC Nijmegen

H 40.6% · D 27.1% · A 32.3%

H D A

NEC Nijmegen v PSV

H 24.8% · D 26.2% · A 49.0%

H D A

Feyenoord v Excelsior

H 59.9% · D 23.6% · A 16.5%

H D A

FC Utrecht v SC Cambuur

H 42.6% · D 27.0% · A 30.4%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 207 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

No upward rank movement.

Biggest faller

No downward rank movement.

Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.

  1. Correction · Matchday 11

    Leader PSV · 1,682.5 Elo · 715 results

    #1 PSV · #2 Feyenoord · #3 Ajax

  2. Matchday 11

    Leader PSV · 1,682.5 Elo · 715 results

    #1 PSV · #2 Feyenoord · #3 Ajax

  3. Correction · Matchday 11

    Leader PSV · 1,682.5 Elo · 714 results

    #1 PSV · #2 Feyenoord · #3 Ajax

  4. Matchday 11

    Leader PSV · 1,682.5 Elo · 714 results

    #1 PSV · #2 Feyenoord · #3 Ajax

  5. Matchday 11

    Leader PSV · 1,682.5 Elo · 713 results

    #1 PSV · #2 Feyenoord · #3 Ajax

  6. Matchday 11

    Leader PSV · 1,682.5 Elo · 712 results

    #1 PSV · #2 Feyenoord · #3 Ajax

  7. Matchday 11

    Leader PSV · 1,682.5 Elo · 711 results

    #1 PSV · #2 Feyenoord · #3 Ajax

  8. Correction · Matchday 11

    Leader PSV · 1,682.5 Elo · 710 results

    #1 PSV · #2 Feyenoord · #3 Ajax

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Rating ahead

FC Utrecht: Volt has them 5 places higher than the table.

Rating ahead

NEC Nijmegen: Volt has them 5 places higher than the table.
  1. #1
    PSV

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #3 Form #7 Elo 1,682.5 −20.1 last 5 LWLDW
    74.1 GV
  2. #2
    Feyenoord

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #1 Form #3 Elo 1,640.8 +23.7 last 5 WWWDD
    69.2 GV
  3. #3
    Ajax

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #2 Form #4 Elo 1,631.6 +19.2 last 5 DDWWW
    68.1 GV
  4. #4
    FC Twente

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #4 Form #5 Elo 1,613.5 +23.5 last 5 WDLWW
    65.8 GV
  5. #5
    AZ Alkmaar

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #5 Form #16 Elo 1,560.3 −26.8 last 5 WLDLL
    58.6 GV
  6. #6
    SC Heerenveen

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #7 Form #1 Elo 1,539.6 +40.3 last 5 WLWWW
    55.7 GV
  7. #7
    FC Utrecht

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #12 Form #11 Elo 1,524.0 −8.5 last 5 LWWDL
    53.5 GV
  8. #8
    NEC Nijmegen

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #13 Form #14 Elo 1,524.0 −11.9 last 5 DDDDL
    53.5 GV
  9. #9
    FC Groningen

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #8 Form #8 Elo 1,506.9 +2.1 last 5 WWLDL
    51.0 GV
  10. #10
    SC Cambuur

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #9 Form #2 Elo 1,505.8 +38.7 last 5 DWDWW
    50.8 GV
  11. #11
    Fortuna Sittard

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #6 Form #6 Elo 1,504.3 +27.0 last 5 WDDWD
    50.6 GV
  12. #12
    Go Ahead Eagles

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #10 Form #13 Elo 1,481.3 −21.4 last 5 DDLWL
    47.3 GV
  13. #13
    Telstar

    Volt ranks them higher than the table does.

    Table #16 Form #15 Elo 1,465.1 −7.8 last 5 LDLLW
    45.0 GV
  14. #14
    Sparta Rotterdam

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #11 Form #10 Elo 1,462.3 +1.4 last 5 LDWLW
    44.6 GV
  15. #15
    Excelsior

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #15 Form #17 Elo 1,457.4 −46.2 last 5 DLLLL
    43.9 GV
  16. #16
    ADO Den Haag

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #17 Form #12 Elo 1,449.3 −2.9 last 5 DDWLL
    42.8 GV
  17. #17
    PEC Zwolle

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #14 Form #9 Elo 1,448.4 +9.1 last 5 LLWDW
    42.6 GV
  18. #18
    Willem II

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #18 Form #18 Elo 1,359.7 −39.3 last 5 LLLLL
    30.8 GV
Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 715 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

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